As Bitcoin rises, the whales start to act! Is selling coming?

Market greed heats up again as Bitcoin rises

Greed in the market re-strengthens as Bitcoin prices climb to US$79,684. The Fear and Greed Index rose to 66 points, while large transfers from whales to exchanges and a negative Coinbase premium attracted widespread attention. As retail investors race to chase gains, do major market participants share the same optimism?

Why did the market show such intense greed when Bitcoin rose?

Bitcoin hit the top of the Bollinger Band on the 1-hour chart, indicating that short-term upward momentum is strengthening. As the price trend returns, FOMO sentiment also resurfaces. The Fear and Greed Index reached 66 points, clearly reflecting the changes in investor psychology.

In addition, the TBSR indicator at the 1.12 level in the futures market also confirms this situation. The indicator shows that investors are buying at above-market prices and using leveraged trading based on bullish expectations. The positive financing rate further confirms that investors who hold long positions are paying fees for this expectation.

However, despite the increase in prices, another set of data did not show the same optimism. Spot purchases by institutional investors do not seem to keep pace with prices, raising questions about the sustainability of current gains.

Are institutional investors buying bitcoin?

It is worth noting that while Bitcoin prices rose, the Coinbase premium remained negative. This indicator shows that the purchasing power of U.S. investors in the spot market has not simultaneously supported the rise in prices. In other words, during the price rise, no strong institutional funds were observed flowing into the spot market. Therefore, it is more likely that this rise will be mainly driven by futures market speculation and investors 'risk appetite.

This differentiation is crucial. If Bitcoin continues to rise in the absence of new spot capital inflows, the sustainability of its market will be reviewed.

Are whales transferring Bitcoin to exchanges?

Another key signal comes from the Exchange Whale Ratio. The ratio rose to 0.93 over an hourly time frame, issuing a second important warning. This number constitutes an early warning area that large investors are moving large amounts of bitcoin into exchanges.

Although moving to an exchange is not directly equivalent to selling immediately, whale transfers of assets to the exchange deserve close monitoring during periods of extreme market optimism. At this point, the divergence in investor behavior becomes more evident: retail investors adopt more aggressive and leveraged long strategies to avoid short positions, while large wallet addresses tend to transfer bitcoin to exchanges.

According to relevant analysis, this enthusiasm may provide liquidity for big players when exiting. Whales and algorithmic traders may take advantage of the demand generated by chasers to distribute their Bitcoin chips. Therefore, while observing price increases, we must pay attention to who is buying and selling.

Is Bitcoin at risk of long squeeze?

Currently, the price momentum indicator is at the level of 20, and the assessment is that the momentum is exhausted; the FEI score is as high as 99.53%. Combined with high financing rates and a large number of leveraged long positions, once Bitcoin fluctuates in the opposite direction, its impact may be amplified.

These long positions will not pose a problem as long as prices continue to rise. But if Bitcoin falls rapidly in a short period of time, a chain reaction triggered by long liquidations may intensify selling pressure. Such movements may be directed at investors who have established positions at high levels.

Therefore, interpreting the current Bitcoin market structure cannot be limited to judging whether the rise will continue. The key lies in the nature of the money driving the rally. If spot demand continues to weaken and leveraged trading and market mania continue to expand, Bitcoin's upward trend will become more fragile. On the contrary, if institutional spot demand re-strengthens, the negative divergences seen today may lose their meaning.

At this stage, the core question for investors is simple: Bitcoin is indeed rising, but are whales also buyers in this rise?

The content of this article is based on general market data and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are advised to conduct independent research.