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BTC Bitcoin prices are consolidating, and the market is waiting for key data guidance.
Bitcoin's current trading price is hovering around US$78,200. Although it remains above the support range of US$77,600 to US$77,900, it has failed to effectively break through the resistance zone of US$80,000 to US$82,000.
Although the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF showed an outflow of US$46.6 million on September 8, the overall inflow this month remained positive at approximately US$723.5 million. This data shows that institutional buyers are not withdrawing in panic, but are taking a wait-and-see attitude before major economic data is released.
Inflation data becomes short-term market catalyst
The current focus of the market is on the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to be released on September 11. Overall inflation is expected to be around 3.4%. In the past two trading days, Bitcoin prices have fluctuated within a narrow range between US$77,600 and US$80,000, and market sentiment has become cautious and awaits the release of this key data.
CPI data released on Thursday is seen as a key catalyst for determining short-term trends: if the data shows moderate inflation, it will strengthen expectations of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and may push Bitcoin towards US$82,000; conversely, if the data is higher than expected, it may cause Bitcoin to fall back to test the US$77,000 support level.
On-chain data reveals the pattern of long-short games
Compared with the fluctuations in the price itself, the underlying on-chain data presents more interesting signals. Bitfinex analysts pointed out that more than 71% of Bitcoin's circulation supply is currently profitable and is gradually approaching the historical average of 74.7%. In past market cycles, this level has often marked the market's transition from a bear market to a bull market and appears to be a bullish signal on the surface.
However, this indicator has a dual meaning: the more chips you have to hold on to profit, the greater the pressure to take profits as the market approaches resistance. This potential selling pressure may offset some of the upward momentum.
Macroeconomic factors are intertwined, increasing market uncertainty.
In addition to CPI data, two important events are superimposed on the follow-up agenda, making it difficult to quickly clarify the market situation: one is the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting scheduled for September 16, and the other is the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on the same day.
In addition, Brent crude oil prices broke through the US$100 per barrel mark, and the yen continued to strengthen ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting. These factors made Bitcoin's trading logic this week no longer based solely on its own fundamentals, but priced more as part of broader macroeconomic bets. Investors need to pay close attention to the linkage impact of these macro variables.
