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BTC 比特币潜在未来价值：前路何在？
加密货币巨头比特币（Bitcoin）目前交易价格约为 76,000 美元。长期预测显示，其价格在 2030 年可能飙升至 170,000 美元，并在 2035 年达到 230,000 美元。这些由 Ned Davis Research 提出的预测基于评估策略，强调了如何超越短期市场波动来评估比特币的价值。
比特币是如何估值的？
Ned Davis Research 的 John LaForge 列出了投资者可用于评估比特币的七个关键框架：网络采用率、黄金对比、货币供应量增长、生产成本、投资组合风险、采用周期以及流行的存量流量模型（Stock-to-Flow）。其中，网络采用率被视为最关键的因素，它监控比特币独有的指标，如钱包持有者数量、通过交易所交易基金（ETF）的暴露度、拥有余额的活跃地址数量以及每日活跃用户数。
LaForge 指出：“理解比特币的价值不仅仅在于观察其有限的供应量；至关重要的是要考虑是否有新的投资者和用户涌入该网络。”将需求置于估值的核心地位，强调了必须超越将有限供应作为唯一指标的局限。LaForge 批评存量流量模型过于强调不断减少的供应量，而未充分质疑需求是否能维持历史高位估计。
生产成本会影响价格吗？
In the short term, the production cost of Bitcoin becomes particularly prominent. CoinShares 'latest mining report shows that the average pre-tax cash expenditure per bitcoin for publicly listed miners in the second quarter was approximately $75,500. This figure is very close to current market prices, indicating that there may be tensions in the market.
Bitcoin prices hover around US$76,300 and need to rise significantly to achieve future forecast targets. Reaching $170,000 means an increase of about 123%; reaching $230,000 requires an increase of about 201% from current levels.
Ned Davis Research's framework allows investors to combine actionable indicators with price targets for analysis. Recent data shows that a large amount of cash withdrawals occurred in the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, marking the largest outflow of funds since June. In addition, Bitcoin tested the US$75,000 mark, which signals the current market volatility. Future price targets depend not only on fixed supply, but more importantly, on adoption rates and demand trends. While these predictions are not absolute, they provide insights into Bitcoin's potential trajectory, prompting observers to consider specific indicators that support these expectations.
