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专家绘制比特币通往2029年4月100万美元的条件路线图

2026-09-18 21:26:40

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Key elements of Bitcoin's path to million-dollar

EGRAG Crypto outlines a conditional path for Bitcoin to $1 million that requires regaining the 21-month exponential moving average (EMA) and breaking through the main downward resistance structure. Monthly chart patterns from 2019 and 2022 support this outlook, while rising channel resistance remains a key technical obstacle.

Bitcoin needs large inflows to hit the US$1 million mark, and a weak trend below the 21EMA will weaken EGRAG's forecast for April 2029.

Monthly structure defines Bitcoin's next big test

Analysts presented this outlook with a logarithmic chart that tracks Bitcoin's movement at forecast levels beyond 2013 and 2030, while identifying several conditions that Bitcoin must meet before it approaches its seven-digit target.

The core of this outlook lies in a series of processes: breakthrough, correction, EMA testing, recovery and another long-term price expansion. A similar pattern appeared around 2019 and 2022, when Bitcoin broke through the downward resistance structure. The white circles mark previous interactions with the 21-month EMA, the blue falling channel represents the adjustment period between major gains, and the two purple trend lines form a rising channel that has guided Bitcoin over a decade.

: Sounds crazy? Let's take a look at the monthly chart first.

Every major Bitcoin cycle follows a similar rhythm:

突破 → 回调 → 21 EMA → 收复 → 扩张如果比特币原生网络完成此次调整，收复21 EMA，并打破……pic.twitter.com/r3dATh122X— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) 2026年9月18日

为了使扩张情景保持可信，比特币必须收复21个月期EMA并突破蓝色的调整结构；买方必须推动BTC穿越多个阻力位，才能挑战紫色通道的上边界。EGRAG的预测路径包括上涨、回撤和整合期，而不是无间断地上升至100万美元水平。

2029年4月的目标仍是有条件的

该图表测量了当前结构与2029年4月1日目标区域之间的31个月度柱状图，即大约943天，尽管市场条件的变化可能会影响预计的完成时间。从77,447美元上涨至100万美元将代表约1,191%的增长，这需要机构、企业和个人市场参与者的大量资金流入和持续的需求。

然而，如果在21 EMA之下出现月度下跌，将会削弱这一形态；如果未能突破下行阻力，将降低人们对EGRAG提出的2029年4月时间表的信心。因此，比特币向100万美元迈进的道路取决于EMA的收复、结构性突破以及宏观通道内的持续强势。

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