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BTC Bitcoin hits US$86,117, spot buying power improves
On Monday, Bitcoin hit US$86,117, up more than 10% from last Sunday's close. On-chain data analysis firm Glassnode pointed out that the flow of active spot trading on the exchange has shifted significantly, from net selling to net buying. This move marks the first time in nearly two weeks that Bitcoin has continued to stand above $80,000, and the demand characteristics behind it are different from the market that briefly broke through $85,000 earlier this week due to short squeeze.
Strengthening spot buying pressure drives prices up
According to Glassnode's market pulse report for the 39th week, the exchange's active spot trading flow turned positive, and trading volume increased with the change in direction. "Takers" are trading participants who execute pending orders, which indicates that active buyer pressure exceeds sellers in spot trading venues. As of press time, BTC was quoted at US$86,117, up 0.36% in 24 hours, and its market value was close to US$1.73 trillion.
The Market Fear Greed Index is at 78 points and is classified as "Extreme Greed."
The mechanical nature of the initial rebound and the return of organic demand
The initial momentum that previously exceeded $85,000 was partially mechanical. Data shows that approximately $750.5 million of crypto-leveraged positions have been liquidated in the past 24 hours, of which more than $648 million came from short positions. Buying from this forced liquidation helped break through resistance, but a subsequent positive shift in the flow of active spot trading suggested that organic demand was closely behind. The price rebound also helped U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders reverse the paper losses they incurred during the two-week correction.
Why active trading flows towards spot are critical to Bitcoin
Active trading flows track who dominates the market. When a buyer closes a deal at Ask rather than waiting for Bid, this reflects a firm bullish belief rather than passive accumulation. Glassnode observed that the indicator turned positive, and volume confirmed the change, a structural signal that is quite different from liquidation-driven price behavior.
However, Glassnode data showed that weekly net inflows into U.S. spot ETFs were about minus $300 million, below its own low range, despite an increase in ETF trading volume. This divergence is noteworthy: spot exchange buyers are entering, while institutional ETF flows are still in net redemption. These two dynamics do not cancel each other out, but they complicate any simple narrative of "institutional demand driving the rally." This comparison is reminiscent of the situation during June 2026, when ETF outflows still put pressure on prices, despite chain indicators remaining constructive.
衍生品持仓高位加剧潜在波动
Glassnode还指出了升高的衍生品持仓情况：期权未平仓合约价值接近410亿美元，高于其高位区间；期货未平仓合约和资金费率也均高于高位区间。在高企的未平仓合约配合正向现货主动交易流向的情况下，价格波动可能在任一方向被放大。鉴于期权持仓如此密集，任何价格加速都可能引发快速的重新定位。
关键点位与市场展望
- 比特币接近86,000美元，周内涨幅超过10%，Glassnode确认交易所现货主动交易流向已转为正值。
- 尽管ETF交易量增加，但每周美国现货比特币ETF净流入仍为负值，约为负3亿美元，低于Glassnode的低区间。
- 期权未平仓合约接近410亿美元，期货持仓高于高位区间，显示出拥挤的衍生品市场，这可能在短期内放大双向波动。
能否维持86,000美元区域是首个考验。如果现货主动交易流向保持正值，且未平仓合约没有急剧 unwind（平仓），则此次反弹具备结构性基础。如果买盘压力消退，同样放大本轮上涨的过高衍生品持仓可能会加速反转。密切关注即将到期的期权和宏观催化剂的交易员，将能最清晰地判断机构资金流最终是否会确认Glassnode本周所识别出的由现货主导的需求信号。
