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BTC CEO of CryptoQuant, a cryptographic data platform: Bitcoin's next bull market may increase by 3-5 times, rather than 10 times.
The CEO of CryptoQuant is more cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin's next bull market. According to relevant reports, he expects Bitcoin's price increase to be three to five times higher than the current level. This forecast is in sharp contrast to the tenfold or higher surge in Bitcoin's early bull cycle.
In the cycles after 2017 and 202, the value of Bitcoin far exceeded the predictions of many analysts at the time. However, the core logic of this forecast lies in the fundamental changes in the structure of the Bitcoin market.
Expanding market size leads to reduced volatility
Today, more capital is deposited in this asset, and institutional participation has increased significantly since the previous major cycle high. A larger, more liquid market typically requires more capital to drive the same percentage of price movements, which suppresses the magnitude of price fluctuations on a natural level.
This view fits into the narrative framework that has become increasingly popular among analysts this year. With the expansion of spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasury allocations, and custody infrastructure, Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a mature macro financial instrument rather than a purely speculative asset. Compression of volatility is often seen as a natural by-product of this transition.
Moderate growth does not mean weakening absolute returns
At the same time, a smoother cycle does not necessarily mean absolute weakness. Even if the percentage increase appears small relative to previous cycles calculated from a lower starting point, a 3-5-fold increase from current price levels would still increase Bitcoin's total market value significantly.
This forecast also has an impact on the risk management thinking of traders and long-term holders. Cycles defined by extreme multiples are often accompanied by sharp downward pullbacks. If the mild-cycle scenario comes true, while the peak may be less dramatic, the downward behavior of the entire market may be more stable.
Data-driven analytics
CryptoQuant is known for its on-chain analytics that tracks wallet behavior, exchange traffic and holder groups, and the company has used this data in the past to guide cycle timing judgments. The latest forecast reflects the company's application of this data-driven approach to its upside assessment in the context of the evolution of Bitcoin's market structure.
Market Impact and Outlook
If this more moderate view of cycles proves accurate, traders may need to recalibrate expectations based on historical multiples of 2013, 2017 and 2020. 3-5 The two-fold scenario is still important for portfolio returns, but it suggests a different risk-return calculation than repeating the past ten-fold surge.
该预测还可能影响山寨币相对于比特币的定位。在过去的周期中，一旦比特币的涨势放缓，大量资本往往会流向较小的资产；而更为受限的比特币周期可能会改变这一轮换在整个加密货币市场中的时机或规模。
CryptoQuant首席执行官的言论加剧了关于比特币日益增长的机构影响力如何重塑周期动态的持续辩论。市场参与者很可能在未来几个月密切关注链上数据和价格走势，以观察哪种情景正在形成。
常见问题解答
是谁做出了比特币3-5倍周期的预测？
据报道，该预测归因于CryptoQuant的首席执行官。
为什么该高管预计倍数会比过去周期小？
其核心原因在于比特币的市场规模更大，且机构参与度更高，这倾向于减少百分比价格波动的幅度，相较于早期规模较小的市场而言。
3-5倍的周期是否意味着美元计价的收益比以前少？
不一定。从当前价格水平上涨3-5倍，尽管百分比增益小于过去的十倍暴涨，但仍可能代表总市值的大幅增加。
CryptoQuant以什么闻名？
CryptoQuant是一家分析公司，追踪诸如交易所流量和钱包行为等链上数据，这些信息常被用于评估比特币市场周期。
