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比特币牛市“确认”，但9万美元存在获利了结风险：分析

2026-09-23 21:27:07

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比特币在9万美元面临“真正的考验”，交易者持续兑现未实现利润

要点：

CryptoQuant预测，比特币获利了结行为可能在9万美元阻碍价格上行。
链上信号（包括价格在80,500美元重新站上365日均线）促使分析师认为牛市已开始。
CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju认为，由于机构持有量的增加，未来周期的顶部和底部将变得更为平缓。

获利了结意味着比特币在9万美元处的“自然暂停”

区块链数据分析平台CryptoQuant在其周二发布的最新周报中警告称，如果价格达到9万美元附近区域，获利了结的概率将显著增加。

比特币交易者的“已实现价格”——即过去1至3个月内最后一次发生链上交易的比特币平均获取成本——目前为64,300美元。CryptoQuant数据显示，围绕这一水平存在上下两条通道带，标志着该部分供应的盈亏区间。用于获利了结的“上限带”位于90,300美元，比已实现价格高出40%。

CryptoQuant分析师指出：“上限带与8.8万至9万美元的链上供应集群重合，使其成为下一个需要突破的阻力位。历史上看，当价格接近上限带时，交易者的利润空间扩大，抛售可能加剧——这是上升趋势中的自然暂停点，而非趋势反转。”

The report described the road from the current spot price of US$86,000 to the profit-taking area as "basically clear" and there was no sign of a return to bear market conditions.

The report continued: "The bull market has been confirmed. Technical, valuation and on-chain data now point in the same direction-up." This view echoes previous assertions by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.

This week, Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform that as Bitcoin ownership shifts from retail investors to institutions, future Bitcoin price cycles will not be as extreme as in the past. "Today, larger markets and growing institutional willingness are curbing extreme volatility. Limiting upward forces also mitigated downside risks,"he wrote.

Bitcoin profitability stabilizes in 2026

Ki pointed out that during the bear market in 2026, Bitcoin's market capital-to-realized value ratio (MVRV) never fell below its break-even point 1, indicating that the broader investor base has remained overall profitable throughout the process-which is in sharp contrast to previous macro downward trends.

Previously, Cointelegraph reported that MVRV has now exceeded its 365-day moving average-an event that marked the end of the bear markets in 2018 and 2022.

本月流入比特币的新资金依然保持高位。据英国投资公司Farside Investors的数据，美国现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）在本周前两个交易日实现了17亿美元的资金净流入。周一的单日净流入达9.99亿美元，创下自2025年10月以来的最大单日总额。

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