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BTC 比特币突破8万美元：机构需求强劲，监管情绪回暖
分析师表示，比特币（BTC）近期突破80,000美元大关，得到了强劲的机构和ETF需求的支撑，同时监管情绪改善以及宏观背景也变得更为友好。然而，这一走势能否转化为持久的上涨行情，目前仍在接受市场检验。
K33、Nexo和Sygnum均指出，强劲的机构和ETF资金流入是推动此次行情的关键因素。K33指出，这是自2024年11月以来最大的单日ETF净流入，而Nexo则提到近10亿美元流入了现货比特币ETF。本周早些时候，比特币首次触及86,000美元，这也是自今年1月以来的最高水平。与此同时，加密货币空头清算规模激增。截至发稿时，BTC交易价格约为83,800美元。
分析师对反弹力度看法不一
K33的Vetle Lunde在周二发布的报告中写道，比特币目前的回调幅度较浅且持续时间较短，不同于2013年、2017年和2021年的主要熊市周期。他表示，这符合此前较为温和的牛市周期后的预期。Lunde补充道，衍生品市场定位和市场情绪均未显示近期存在严重的下行风险，且BTC“仍有空间”来追赶黄金和股市的表现。
监管方面的进展也为市场增添了另一股顺风力量。21Shares的宏观主管Stephen Coltman指出，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的创新豁免以及商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的规则制定活动，表明尽管《CLARITY法案》近期在参议院遭遇挫折，但加密货币监管仍在继续推进。K33表示，围绕美联储决策和《CLARITY法案》投票的不确定性得到解决，也有助于促成此次突破。
上周，SEC给予了五年期的监管 relief 窗口期。此举允许交易所在特定条件下提供代币化资产交易，而无需注册为国家证券交易所或经纪交易商。Coltman表示，这一举措“引发了市场对专为基于区块链的市场做市和代币化资产交易设计的协议的浓厚兴趣”，并激发了整个加密市场情绪的更广泛复苏。
成交量萎缩引发谨慎信号
虽然地缘政治条件目前提供了更有利的背景，但它们仍然是主要风险。Capital.com的高级市场分析师Daniela Hathorn表示，油价下跌和国债收益率下降有助于抵消美联储政策收紧带来的影响。她指出，即将到来的地缘政治发展是需要关注的可能催化剂。
Hathorn said $87,000 to $88,000 is the current direct resistance area, with $90,000 being the next major psychological barrier. She said that if a higher position cannot be exceeded, profit-taking may occur after a rapid rise, with $84,000 to $85,000 being the primary observation level, and $80,000 below this level will become more important.
Nexo takes a more cautious view. Analysts at the agency pointed out that trading volume has shrunk, market breadth has narrowed, and derivatives positioning seems unconvincing. Nexo said leverage is rising but remains manageable, and current positioning may expose BTC to the risk of profit-taking or suspension.
K33 believes that this trend suggests that market cycle lows are likely to be behind Bitcoin. Nexo is watching more closely whether this trend can translate into sustained gains rather than just reflecting short covering.
Fundstrat's Tom Lee said earlier this week that the cryptocurrency bull market has begun. He said the trend began in late June and was driven by multiple factors, including the return of funds from AI stocks to cryptocurrencies, strengthening fundamentals related to tokenization and AI, and the end of a four-year market cycle.
