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BTC The Senate failed to pass the CLARITY bill, and Bitcoin rebounded above $80,000 after falling below $75,000.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) weakened in trading. Previously, the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, causing the price of Bitcoin to fall below US$75,000 and then rose to more than US$80,000.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo believes that a market bottom may have been established
Despite the weak performance in the short term, on-chain analyst Willy Woo believes that Bitcoin may have established a market bottom and entered the early stages of a new bull cycle.
In an article posted on Platform X on Wednesday, he pointed out that he is 90% confident that a bottom has been formed, citing improved liquidity conditions and long-term investors returning to the market.
"I think the probability that a bottom has formed is 90%. Based on the return of long-term investor liquidity, we are in an early bull market structure." Woo said.
Traditional cyclical signals are less persuasive, focusing on liquidity structure
His comments came against the backdrop of selling pressure in the broader cryptocurrency market. Previously, market sentiment was affected due to the failure of the CLARITY Act to pass in the U.S. Senate procedural vote on September 15, 2024. The bill received 49 votes in favor and 50 votes against, one vote short of the required 60-vote advancement threshold.
According to this analyst, the persuasive signal generated by traditional cycle analysis methods is currently greatly reduced, and the consensus of analysts relying on such models to judge the bottom is only about 40%.
“塑造我观点的核心是比特币的流动性结构；我刻意避开了历史上在判断底部方面非常成功的传统周期模式。”他说。
相反，Woo正在密切关注比特币的流动性结构以及长期资本投资者的回流情况。他表示，只要资金流向保持稳健，当前的结构依然看涨。
缺乏固定时间框架，其他指标也显示积极迹象
然而，这位评论员并没有给出潜在牛市可能持续的确切时间表。他指出，历史周期模式的可信度正在降低，这使得难以确定下一轮上涨是否会持续数年之久。
Woo的观点与其他链上指标相吻合，这些指标表明比特币近期的疲软未必标志着长期下跌阶段的开始。
CryptoQuant贡献者Darkfost最近指出，短期持有的比特币持有者已连续近一个月处于盈利状态。周一，该分析师表示，这与之前的复苏尝试不同，以往获利头寸往往迅速引发新一轮抛售。分析显示，约有1680亿美元的短期持有者比特币处于盈利状态，而未实现亏损则略高于1000亿美元。Darkfost表示，这种行为模式与2022-2023年熊市结束时的过渡期相似。
长期持有者的活动也显示出改善的迹象，尽管分析师强调，历史模式并不能保证此次会出现相同的结果。
部分分析师仍持谨慎态度
话虽如此，在这种乐观情绪中，其他市场分析师仍保持谨慎。彭博情报策略师Mike McGlone警告称，标普500指数的显著回调可能会因比特币与更广泛风险资产日益增长的关联性而对比特币造成沉重打击。
“比特币于2009年大衰退期间诞生，曾引领风险资产上行，如今可能正引领其下行。”McGlone周日表示，“比特币可能正在向其在1万美元左右的持久枢轴点靠拢，而一个简单因素可能导致这一结果——即标普500指数出现约20%的持续回撤，这在历史上曾发生过。”
截至发稿时，BTC交易价格为84,752美元，过去24小时内上涨1.86%。
