Speculation about strategic Bitcoin buying rekindled after Saylor's announcement

TLDR

Strategy: Bitcoin purchase forecasts coexist with recent sell-off. Cash reserves and STRC jointly decide the next round of financial actions.

Strategy: Bitcoin purchase speculation resurfaces

Michael Siler released an orange-dotted chart on Sunday with the text "Doing business", once again triggering market speculation that Strategy might buy Bitcoin. However, the meaning of this announcement is unclear, as the company has recently confirmed several Bitcoin sales.

Strategy last week reported selling 1,638 bitcoins, bringing its cash reserves to US$4 billion. The company also uses the funds for STRC preferred stock repurchase and dividend payment. Until the next formal disclosure, there is uncertainty about purchases, sales and internal fund management. On Sunday, Bitcoin traded at approximately $65,146.

Bitcoin purchase forecast and recent sell-off

Thaler's post showed the orange acquisition points recorded by StrategyTracker, but did not confirm new transactions. Market participants often view these Sunday charts as early signals. However, similar posts on Sunday were followed by a sale announcement, which changed investors 'understanding of the model. Strategy confirmed in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on August 3 that it sold 1,638 bitcoins between July 27 and August 2. The sale earned $104.73 million after expenses, with an average selling price of $63,957.

Strategy will spend $52.4 million on preferred stock dividends and $52.3 million on STRC buybacks. After the transaction was completed, its official accounts showed holding 842,138 bitcoins at a total cost of US$63.51 billion and an average cost of US$75,419. Based on Sunday's market price, the reserve is worth approximately US$54.87 billion, with a floating book loss of nearly US$9 billion. Such book losses will continue to change and do not represent realized accounting losses arising from actual sales.

Strategy has not confirmed any Bitcoin purchases since it purchased 520 bitcoins in the week of June 22. Instead, the company has recorded four negative account movements this year, totaling 5,258 bitcoins, reported sales on June 1, June 30, July 6 and August 3, respectively. This change reflects the broader Bitcoin treasury model, which has multiple capital allocation tools. Therefore, it is impossible to determine which financing channel the company used based on Seler's advance notice alone.

Cash reserves and STRC affect next financial actions

At the same time,$4 billion in cash reserves provide Strategy with room to pay interest and preferred stock dividends without having to sell more bitcoin. The company added $250 million through MSTR stock sales in the most recent week. Overall,$290.6 million was raised through the issuance of 3.01 million common shares. Strategy used $28.9 million of that for STRC repurchases and another $11.7 million into its general cash balance. Combined with the proceeds from the Bitcoin sale, the company spent a total of US$81.2 million to repurchase 912,143 STRC shares.

STRC closed at around $94.60 on Friday, below its $100 face value. Management aims to bring its transaction price closer to $100 and plans to conduct a disciplined repurchase while the discount continues. Strategy still has $893.8 million available under the preferred stock repurchase authorization. If management continues to prioritize support for STRC, the discount situation may delay Bitcoin purchases. However, cash reserves and equity plans provide alternative financing channels. Strategy can resume accumulation without drawing on cash used for dividends and interest.

The company's previous purchase cycles suggest that the speed of capital deployment can change quickly. But its current framework also allows Bitcoin monetization for specific obligations. An orange-dotted chart cannot automatically produce any result.

In addition, on-chain activities have also added new questions. Lookonchain discovered on August 5 that a wallet associated with Strategy had transferred 1,030 bitcoins worth approximately $66 million. This on-chain transfer does not prove to be a sale, as assets may be transferred between different custodians or internal addresses. Strategy's public accounts still show holding 842,138 bitcoins, and there were no subsequent company documents confirming that the ownership of these transferred bitcoins had changed. The next SEC filing or data update will determine whether there have been any Bitcoin purchases, additional sales, or the balance remains unchanged.