QCP says Fed risks are rising, Bitcoin rushes to US$80,000 with solid spot support

QCP said there was strong spot support for Bitcoin's rebound of US$80,000.

The risk of a Fed interest rate hike tested Bitcoin and approached the key area of 81K-86K.

QCP pointed out that Bitcoin's return to US$80,000. Behind the rebound, there was a US$2.8 billion ETF inflow as support, while open futures contracts were falling.

Although the bitcoin price once approached US$80,000, open interest in bitcoin futures fell from 646,000 BTC to 588,000 BTC.

After Walsh's speech, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September rose to 56%-60%, while Bitcoin prices fell back below $78,000.

QCP believes that as the funding rate remains stable, indicating that leverage levels are still controllable, US$81K-86K will become the next key area for Bitcoin.

Digital asset trading company QCP said that Bitcoin has rebounded to around US$80,000 this time, and its market structure is healthier than the rapid rise of many cryptocurrencies. The rise did not rely on aggressive leveraged buying, but coincided with spot demand, ETF inflows and short covering.

QCP: Bitcoin's current rally has solid spot support

QCP Capital reported that from the perspective of the underlying market structure, Bitcoin's rise from US$63,500 to more than US$80,000 has solid spot support. The rally that started at $63,500 was supported by approximately $2.8 billion in spot funds.

Bitcoin climbed from about $63,500 to nearly $80,000 in just over a week, breaking through $81,000 at one point. At the same time, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows of approximately US$2.8 billion for eight consecutive trading days, providing measurable demand for this recovery.

QCP said there was strong spot support for Bitcoin's US$80,000 rally

QCP's derivatives data further confirmed that leverage was not the main driving force for this rise. While prices rose sharply, open interest in futures denominated in bitcoin fell.

Open interest contracts fell from approximately 646,000 BTC in mid-August to approximately 588,000 BTC during the rebound period. At the same time, funding rates remained stable and did not rise significantly with prices.

This distinction is crucial because high-leverage gains can become unstable as traders borrow more and more money to maintain bullish positions. The decline in open interest contracts indicates that some futures positions are being closed while the market is rising.

According to the QCP, this combination suggests that spot buying and short covering contribute more than aggressive leveraged bulls. The need to buy Bitcoin when short positions are closed increases demand but does not create new long leverage.

Despite this, option positions have become more bullish. Call option skew has increased, while the bearish call ratio remains below 1, indicating that the market needs upward momentum stronger than the need for downward protection.

However, conditions in the derivatives market are still lower than they were when positions were highly crowded. As a result, the market entered the $80,000 area without the leverage accumulation that typically occurs in reversals triggered by sharp liquidations.

The risk of a Fed rate hike tests Bitcoin, approaching the key area of 81K-86K

Although the cryptocurrency market positions are relatively balanced, the macroeconomic environment has become more severe. The overall PCE inflation rate reached 3.7% in July, while the core PCE rose 3.3%.

Both figures are above the Fed's 2% inflation target. In addition, despite three voting committee members supporting a 25 basis point rate hike in July, policymakers ultimately left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh reinforced this policy message in his Jackson Hole speech. He described the 2% inflation target as a "firm, fixed target."

After these remarks, the market raised its forecast probability of raising interest rates in September to 56%-60% from the previous approximately 35%. As the U.S. dollar strengthened and short-term government bond yields rose, Bitcoin subsequently fell below $78,000.

At the same time, treasury bond liquidity measures have also brought independent market impacts. The U.S. Treasury Department will increase the size of liquidity-backed repurchase of 10-to 30-year nominal securities from US$2 billion to at least US$4 billion starting September 9.

The announcement initially pushed down long-term yields and weakened the U.S. dollar. But the Treasury stressed that the plan was designed to support market operations rather than imitating Fed-style quantitative easing.

In this context, the QCP identified US$81,000 -86,000 as the next important trading area for Bitcoin. Futures funding rates and open interest contracts now provide measurable indicators of whether spot demand continues to dominate the rally.

For now, available data shows that Bitcoin is approaching the region with large ETF inflows and declining futures exposure, while rising Fed policy risks pose an independent macroeconomic challenge.