Galaxy Digital lowers its probability of passage of the 2026 CLARITY Act to 50%

Galaxy Digital lowers the likelihood of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%

Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate of the likelihood of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, arguing that the U.S. Senate\'s time window for promoting the digital assets bill is shrinking before lawmakers enter their August recess. Alex Thorn, the company\'s company-wide research director, said the adjustment reflected time pressure rather than a sudden shift in the bill\'s basic policy merits.

Thorn pointed to structural obstacles in the Senate-most notably the lack of a unified single text between the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees, the continued uncertainty about when bills might reach the House, and the increasingly tight legislative agenda. At the same time, he said political wrangling over other high-profile legislation has intensified competition for the Senate\'s limited schedule.

Key Points

Galaxy Digital lowered the probability of passage of the CLARITY Act in 2026 to 50%, citing uncertainty about Senate time and increasingly tight timetables. The company previously lowered its forecast to 60% from 75% on June 9, after raising the probability to 75% just a few weeks ago on May 22. Thorn said the downgrade was mainly a matter of timing, not whether the substance of the CLARITY Act gained more or lost support. Restrictions on the Senate schedule are exacerbated by other legislative priorities, including debate on the SAVE bill. Although the bill passed the Senate Banking Committee in May, lawmakers still need to find a viable path forward in the full Senate before recess in August.

Galaxy downgrade reflects a more difficult path in the Senate

In an article posted through Alex Thorn\'s social media account, Galaxy said it lowered its forecast for the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to \"50%.\" Thorn attributed the adjustment to the reality of the Senate\'s schedule-specifically, even a bill that enjoys bipartisan support may not gain enough procedural and scheduling space for a final vote. The update comes after Galaxy adjusted its estimates several times in recent weeks. On June 9, Galaxy lowered its forecast to 60% from the previous 75%. Earlier, on May 22, the company had raised the probability to 75%, signaling that it believed the bill\'s momentum would continue. Thorn emphasized that the downgrade should not be interpreted as a comment on the policy direction of the bill. Instead, he said the core issue was \"timing\"-including whether there was a text that could pass a unified version of the Senate Banking-Agriculture Committee and whether leadership could allocate a meaningful deliberative time for the bill.

August recess approaches, competitive debate intensifies

Galaxy\'s argument is based on the Senate\'s recent schedule. According to the U.S. Senate\'s legislative timetable, the House will enter its working period starting on Monday and ending on July 10. The Senate is expected to begin its traditional August recess on August 8, lasting about five weeks, before returning on September 14. Thorn said that as the schedule compresses, the path to passage of the bill becomes more difficult. He warned that lawmakers were dealing with \"already crowded\" time queues and noted that the debate over the SAVE bill added another \"controversial\" and resource-consuming battle to the same agenda bottleneck. Thorn further pointed out that the broader legislative environment also includes other unfinished and politically sensitive projects, making it more difficult for any single bill-especially those that require cross-committee coordination-to gain priority. He cited Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) and the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2027 as additional \"must-pass\" targets that typically attract political attention.

In this context, the timetable of the CLARITY Act has also attracted attention. The bill, which is scheduled for a hearing in the House on July 17, aims to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States.

Status of CLARITY Act-and why resistance persists

Although the CLARITY Act has made progress in Congress, it has not escaped controversy. The bill passed the Senate Banking Committee in May, but according to reports at the time, most Democrats on the committee and some bankers raised objections. Critics believe the bill could allow cryptocurrency companies to offer income products linked to stablecoins without having to meet the same regulatory requirements as traditional financial institutions. Opposition to regulation and public safety outside the banking industry has also emerged. Earlier reports noted that groups, including law enforcement organizations and the Alliance of Catholic Organizations, wrote to White House officials expressing concerns that the CLARITY Act may create gaps in regulation related to illegal activities.

Meanwhile, industry advocates continue to drive progress. In early June, more than 200 cryptocurrency companies and organizations sent a letter to the Senate through the cryptocurrency lobby group Stand With Crypto urging it to pass the CLARITY Act, highlighting supporters \'efforts to maintain momentum even as schedule pressures mount.

Focus: Time becomes the decisive factor

随着 Galaxy 现在将 2026 年通过的可能性视为对半开，市场参与者面临的实际问题是：参议院领导层能否在八月休会前协调好委员会程序并争取到议事时间。接下来需要关注的程序性进展包括：是否会出现一个可行且统一的参议院文本；参议院领导层的最终议事日程安排如何；以及 SAVE 法案和其他高优先级的“必须通过”项目将如何影响实际能够提交投票的事项。