ASML (ASML) shares fell 5% despite a 70% increase in Canto Fitzgerald's bullish target price

Core Points

Institutional investment activity remains strong
Wall Street Outlook

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Cantor Fitzgerald maintains an "overweight" rating on ASML with a price target of 2,500 euros, implying approximately 70% upside potential based on current trading levels.

Analysts have raised their earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for many years to come, predicting EPS expansion to reach 13%, 16%, 18% and 2029 respectively between 2026 and 2029, on the basis of exceeding consensus market expectations. Industry lithography demand intensity is expected to accelerate by the end of 2027, and 3D DRAM technology will be at least ten years away from commercial deployment.

Corient Private Wealth increased its ASML holdings by 8.5% in the second quarter, increasing investment to approximately US$435 million.

The stock hit a 12-month high of $1,999.96 and opened Friday at $1,687.43, down about 5.5% during the session.

ASML Holding N.V., ASML

Shares of the semiconductor equipment maker opened at US$1,687.43 on Friday and fell about 5.5% throughout the day. The stock has a 52-week trading range of $798.51 to $1,999.96, and according to various data sources, the company's market value ranges from approximately $617 billion to $663 billion.

Cantor Fitzgerald raised its earnings per share forecast for all forecast time frames. Analysts now expect the target EPS expansion to be 13% above the Wall Street consensus in 2026, followed by 16% in 2027, 18% in 2028, and 20% in 2029. These increases follow a comprehensive evaluation of lithography equipment orders.

Research institutions predict that lithography demand intensity will increase in the second half of 2027. Analysts believe that 3D DRAM technology will not enter the commercial market for at least a decade. Cantor pointed out that 6F2/4F2 capital investment has driven the acceleration of spending by DRAM makers on low and high numerical aperture systems.

Regarding regulatory considerations, Cantor Fitzgerald believes that the potential risks posed by the MATCH Act are negligible. This assessment removes a key uncertainty that market participants have been concerned about.

ASML's Capital Markets Day demonstration event is scheduled for June 2027, which may provide a catalyst for updating financial guidance and long-term goals.

Institutional investment activity remains strong

Corient Private Wealth LP increased its ASML position by 8.5% in the second quarter, acquiring an additional 17,214 shares, bringing the cumulative position to 218,728 shares, worth approximately US$435 million. Institutional investors collectively control about 26% of the semiconductor equipment maker.

Other investment companies have similarly increased their allocations. Binnacle Investments increased its ownership by 78.9% in the second quarter. Resources Management Corp CT ADV expanded its position by 1,150% in the fourth quarter, despite starting at a very low level.

Wall Street Outlook

The broader group of analysts remains optimistic. Sanford C. Bernstein raised its valuation target to $2,623 from $1,971 and maintained its "outperform" rating. JPMorgan raised its target from $2,200 to $2,400 and gave a recommendation to "increase holdings". The average price target for all coverage analysts is $1,970.33, accompanied by a consistent "moderate buy" rating.

Among the 32 analysts providing coverage, 4 gave a "strong buy" rating, 21 recommended "buy", 4 maintained a "hold" position, and 3 rated "sell".

ASML's second-quarter earnings per share were $8.65, and total revenue was $10.62 billion. The net profit margin was 30.11%, and the return on net assets was 52.71%. The full-year EPS consensus is currently $44.99.

The chip-making equipment maker recently paid a quarterly dividend of $2.1507 per share, with an annualized dividend yield of approximately 0.5%.

Freedom Broker independently raised its price target from US$1,650 to US$2,100, citing customer demand levels that exceeded existing production capacity.