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TRX 国际清算银行研究：比特币链上转移价值估算差异可达六倍
国际清算银行（BIS）的研究人员发现，根据所采用的测量方法不同，比特币（BTC）链上转移价值的估算结果差异可能高达六倍。这一发现发表于BIS的工作论文中，主要关注的是链上转移价值而非交易所交易量，其根源在于各种方法论在处理比特币交易结构时的差异。
核心问题：找零输出的处理方式
核心问题在于如何处理“找零输出”（change outputs）。当用户花费比特币时，未使用的资金通常会作为找零返回给发送方。某些测量方法将这笔找零视为额外的输出进行统计，尽管实际上并没有发生向另一方的资金转移。是否将这部分回款金额纳入特定指标的计算，是造成研究人员发现的六倍差距的主要原因。
指标掩盖了经济现实
研究人员对广泛使用的加密资产指标直言不讳地提出了批评。“诸如交易量、市值和总锁仓价值等指标，往往暗示出一种由底层数据性质所无法支持的高精度，”他们在报告中写道。该研究基于对跨越比特币、以太坊（ETH）和波场（TRX）的1000亿条区块链记录的分析。
This measurement problem is not limited to transfer value, but also extends to calculating the market value of Bitcoin. Researchers have found that traditional market value calculations can sometimes be as much as four times higher than the "realized market value." This is because traditional methods value a coin based on its price the last time it moved along the chain, rather than its current market price.
The complexity of Ethereum
Due to the huge number of smart contracts on the network, Ethereum presents another layer of complexity. Of the approximately 67.5 million active contracts examined in the study, approximately 54 million could not be classified using the classification framework applied by the researchers. This has resulted in a considerable part of Ethereum's chain activities lacking clear functional labels.
Stability coin activity varies according to blockchain
Stability coins introduce another dimension to the measurement problem because the same asset may serve different economic purposes when running on different blockchains. Researchers found that USDTs on Ethereum are more closely related to decentralized finance (DeFi) activities, while USDTs on the wavefield are more related to payment behavior and stored value use.
This divergence is particularly evident in the proportion of smart contract positions. In 2022, the USDT share held by smart contracts on Ethereum will exceed 20%, while the market will only be about 1%. Researchers pointed out that aggregating USDT activity on the two blockchains could confuse fundamentally different types of economic behavior, thereby concealing the true use of stablecoins in practice.
Industry response measures
Some analytics providers have independently addressed this issue. Visa's Onchain Analytics dashboard is powered by data from Allium Labs and displays both total stablecoin transaction volume and adjusted transaction volume. Among them, the adjusted data aims to remove the distorting effects of high-frequency trading, robots, bridge routing and internal exchange operations. In the past 30 days, the dashboard showed total stablecoin trading volume on the tracking network at $6.4 trillion, compared with adjusted trading volume of $313.1 billion.
Conclusion
The BIS researchers concluded that on-chain indicators should be regarded as "noisy approximations rather than direct measures of economic activity." This conclusion applies to the various indicators of Bitcoin, Ethereum and stablecoins examined in the study.
