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Following核心要点
• 罗森布拉特（Rosenblatt）对闪迪（SanDisk，代码：SNDK）启动覆盖，给予“买入”评级，目标价为2,400美元。
• 该公司分析师凯文·卡西迪（Kevin Cassidy）预计，从SNDK收盘价1,766.64美元计算，潜在上涨空间约为36%。
• 分析师认为，人工智能正在将NAND闪存从商品存储转变为关键的人工智能基础设施。
• 公司已与八大主要NAND采购方签订了“新商业模式”合同，可能占2028财年产量的65%。
• 分析师共识评级为“强烈买入”，平均目标价为2,195.29美元。
技术 advancement 战略
周二，罗森布拉特对闪迪（SNDK）启动了覆盖研究，给予“买入”评级，并设定了2,400美元的目标价。这一目标意味着相比SNDK在9月22日的收盘价1,766.64美元，潜在升值空间约为36%。
该观点来自分析师凯文·卡西迪，他在TipRanks监控的12,521名分析师中排名第58位。他的过往记录包括59%的准确率和每份推荐在一年时间框架内实现39%的平均回报。
卡西迪投资论点的基石很明确：人工智能正在从根本上改变NAND闪存的角色。他认为，该技术正从商品化存储解决方案转变为AI计算基础设施的关键组成部分。
Cassidy pointed out that the growth of model dimensions and data-intensive reasoning operations are the main catalysts. According to his analysis, these developments are driving the need for higher storage densities, superior performance characteristics, and reliable supply guarantees that go beyond mere price considerations.
If this shift materializes, it will represent a significant departure from NAND from traditional market dynamics. Traditional demand mainly comes from consumer electronics, personal computers and mobile devices.
Technology Upgrade Strategy
Cassidy believes SanDisk is strategically positioned to take advantage of these trends. The company has been working with manufacturing partner Kixia to develop NAND technology for about 25 years.
He paid special attention to SanDisk's BiCS8 and BiCS10 technology platforms. These architectures increase storage capacity with fewer 3D layers than competitors, which Cassidy believes should retain a competitive advantage in cost and performance for enterprise AI storage applications.
The company's management forecasts mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth for the fiscal year 2028 - 2030, a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 80%, and an adjusted free cash flow margin of approximately 50%. Cassidy expects non-GAAP earnings per share for fiscal 2030 to be approximately $300.
His $2,400 valuation target is based on a 10-times earnings ratio of his fiscal year 2028 earnings forecast. He described the multiple as prudent, acknowledging the uncertainty of execution and the risk that NAND prices could return to traditional cyclical commodity behavior.
Strategic contracts enhance demand predictability
卡西迪特别强调的一个组成部分是闪迪的“新商业模式”合同。该公司已与全球八大NAND采购方达成协议。
卡西迪预计，这些安排可能涵盖2028财年制造产出的约65%。他预期这将帮助闪迪增强需求预测能力，并有助于缓解历史上NAND市场所特有的波动性。
假设这些协议持续有效，这代表了重大的结构性演变。NAND传统上被认为是半导体行业中周期性较强的板块之一。
在周二盘前交易期间，随着覆盖研究的启动，SNDK股价出现上涨。
更广泛的分析师社区同样持积极看法。SNDK在TipRanks上的分析师共识评级为“强烈买入”，源自15个“买入”评级和两个“持有”评级。
分析师共识目标价为2,195.29美元，表明从当前交易水平来看，潜在升值空间约为24%。
