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BTC Bitcoin and the stock market: The logic behind the same frequency resonance
Bitcoin and the stock market are two very different asset classes. The former represents a decentralized digital network, while the latter represents ownership of the enterprise. However, on certain trading days, Bitcoin, the S & P 500 and technology stocks tend to rise sharply in sync. This is not a pure coincidence.
As Bitcoin becomes increasingly integrated into the mainstream financial system, its relationship with traditional markets has also strengthened. An International Monetary Fund (IMF) study found that as cryptocurrency penetration increases and both markets respond to looser financial conditions and stronger investor risk appetite, spillover effects between Bitcoin and the stock market have increased significantly after 2020. But this does not mean that Bitcoin is only passively following stock market trends. This connection is constantly changing.
Core Link: Risk appetite
Markets often switch between two broad sentiments: "Risk-on" and "Risk-off". In a risk-appetite environment, investors are more willing to hold assets with greater price fluctuations but higher potential returns. This will benefit the following assets:
- Risk-appetite assets: Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, small-cap stocks, high-yield bonds.
- Defensive alternative assets: Cash, short-term government debt, defensive stocks, high-quality bonds.
- Specific sectors: Technology stocks, AI and semiconductor stocks.
比特币越来越多地处于这一光谱中偏向高风险的一侧。因此，市场情绪的广泛改善可以同时推高BTC和股票价格。最近的交易时段提供了很好的例证：随着油价和美国国债收益率回落，股市反弹，而比特币也同时走高。
利率如何联动两个市场
利率提供了另一个重要的连接点。当美国国债收益率下降时，投资者从相对安全的政府债券中获得的回报减少。同时，较低的收益率可以提高投资者对未来企业利润现值的评估。这对成长型股票尤为有利。
虽然比特币不产生收益，但较低的收益率仍可通过降低持有无息资产的机会成本来提供帮助。反之，当利率急剧上升时，较高的收益率会使现金和债券更具竞争力，从而给投机性的科技股和加密货币带来压力。美联储近期的紧缩政策导致美股大幅下跌，便清晰地展示了这一动态。
流动性的影响远超表象
市场还会对投资者愿意并能够投入的资金量做出反应。当金融条件宽松时，借贷变得更容易，波动性下降，投资者可能会将资金从现金转向具有更大上行潜力的资产。其中一部分资金流入股市，另一部分则流向比特币。
重要的是，市值增加1万亿美元并不一定需要1万亿美元的新资金进入该资产。价格由边际决定：如果买家愿意支付越来越高的价格，那么每一股或每一枚硬币的价值都会随着最新的市场价格而上升。由于比特币的可流通供应相对受限，这种效应在其身上表现得尤为剧烈。
机构投资者连接了两个世界
比特币曾主要在独立的加密货币生态系统内交易，但这种区别正在减弱。现货比特币ETF的出现，使得传统投资组合可以通过与股票相同的券商和资产管理基础设施获得BTC敞口。因此，大型ETF的资金流入成为机构风险偏好变化传导至比特币的另一个渠道。在比特币最近的一次突破中，单日内就有近10亿美元流入美国比特币ETF。
加密相关股票构成了另一座桥梁。Coinbase、MicroStrategy、矿工公司以及其他相关企业会在比特币走强时上涨，从而将加密情绪直接扩散到股票指数中。
为何比特币并不总是跟随股市？
因为相关性不等于因果性，且相关性会发生变化。比特币拥有自己的催化剂：ETF资金流、监管政策、减半周期、鲸鱼活动、杠杆率以及交易所清算等加密特有的需求。而股市则受企业盈利、股息、回购和公司特定新闻的影响。
因此，一个仅对比特币有利的消息可能推动BTC上涨，而标普500指数却下跌。同样，强劲的AI业务盈利可以驱动英伟达、博通等科技股上涨，而不会为比特币创造实质性的需求。
