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Following核心要点
- 监管机构指出，基于个人行为的预测合约存在较高的操纵风险。
- 前白宫工作人员利用内幕信息交易总统演讲内容的丑闻凸显了监管担忧。
- 监管机构加强对预测平台的关注，要求建立更严格的反操纵措施。
监管机构警示：个人行为类预测合约面临高操纵风险
联邦监管机构已发出警告，指出基于个人行为的预测合约存在加剧的操纵隐患。这类被称为“提及市场”（mention markets）的交易涉及对某人是否会说出特定话语、出席特定活动或采取特定行动进行押注。
监管机构表示，此类合约仅在具备健全反操纵 safeguards（保障措施）的严格条件下才被允许。这一指导方针是在针对一名前白宫工作人员的执法行动后发布的，该人员通过提前获知演讲内容获利超过 10.7 万美元。
虽然这些市场并未被完全禁止，但它们在设计和监督措施方面将面临更严格的监管审查。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）发布了关于依赖特定个体行为或言论的预测市场平台的指导文件。联邦监管机构强调，以人为中心的这些市场存在较高的操纵漏洞，因为当事人有可能影响最终结果。
These specialized markets cover questions such as whether well-known people use specific phrases, appear in specific places, or interact with others. Regulators point out that such results are fundamentally different from those that occur independently with easily accessible sources of verification.
Regulatory focus: Preventing insider manipulation
The CFTC's Market Regulation Department announced on Tuesday that under current derivatives regulations, personal-based forecast contracts should only be allowed in narrow circumstances. Trading platforms must demonstrate that their contracts are resistant to easy manipulation.
The main concern is that individuals who are aware of the existence of markets may change their words or actions to influence outcomes. In addition, circles close to these individuals may have prior information about planning behavior before widespread markets become aware of it.
Instead of imposing a blanket ban, regulators have established evaluation criteria for exchanges to determine whether these markets can operate fairly. Platforms must assess whether the results can be independently verified and whether external commitments make it difficult for parties to manipulate. Regulators also emphasized the importance of the public environment, external supervision and surveillance systems that can identify suspicious transaction patterns.
Forecasting platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have driven a significant expansion of event-based contracts to cover political developments, economic indicators, sports competitions and other topics. The latest guidance further focuses on contracts where a single individual directly controls settlement results.
总统演讲交易丑闻印证监管担忧
此次监管警告紧随近期涉及总统预测市场的执法程序之后。去年 8 月，监管机构命令前白宫提词器操作员加布里埃尔·佩雷斯（Gabriel Perez）没收其非法交易所得的 107,539.02 美元，并缴纳 65,000 美元的民事罚款。
监管机构表示，佩雷斯在政府任职期间可以提前接触总统的讲话稿。他利用这一特权信息，交易赌注于唐纳德·特朗普总统在未来演讲中将使用的特定词汇和术语的合约。
和解协议还禁止佩雷斯从事交易活动三年。CFTC 承认 Kalshi 配合了其调查。此案展示了监管机构对个人主义市场所关注的信息不对称问题。参与演讲准备、活动协调或公开露面策划的个人，可能在其他参与者之前就知道合约结果。
监管机构此前在今年发布了更广泛的指导文件，提醒预测交易所履行其前沿监管责任。今年 3 月的通信强调了监控协议、合约结构以及对反操纵要求的遵守。
监管注意力扩展至预测平台
最近的咨询意见并没有消除基于演讲或公开活动的合约的可能性。然而，它大大增加了证明特定市场能够在没有操纵漏洞的情况下运行的监管要求。
监管机构表示，当交易所根据 CFTC 法规提议基于个人的市场时，应提交针对个别合约的全面分析。这一要求可能迫使平台实施更强大的监控系统，并为这些产品设置更严格的参数。
随着预测市场继续多样化并吸引更多交易活动，这份指导方针应运而生。随着这种扩张，监管机构加强了对内幕信息访问、市场监控能力以及参与者是否能直接影响其赌注基础事件的审查。
对于 Kalshi、Polymarket 及类似的预测场所而言，基于个人的市场在某些格式下仍可能继续运营。CFTC 的立场澄清了，涉及个人行为的合约将受到比基于独立确定结果的合约更为严格的评估。
