《CLARITY法案停滞，比特币价格走势将何去何从？》

CLARITY法案在参议院受阻，比特币或面临更长的监管不确定性

尽管美国参议院未能推进《CLARITY法案》（即明确法律以建立国家数字资产框架的法案），比特币可能将面临一段更长的监管不确定时期。然而，这一挫折并未改变比特币目前作为“数字商品”的分类地位。

立法停滞延迟了联邦规则的确立

尽管《CLARITY法案》未能在参议院获得通过，但比特币仍被归类为数字商品。这一进展受阻推迟了针对加密现货市场的联邦规则制定，使得比特币目前的待遇部分依赖于各监管机构的解读。与此同时，现货比特币ETF在经历初期的抛售回落后重新迎来资金流入，BTC价格也从低于76,000美元回升至86,000美元以上。随着国会考虑是否重新审议该立法，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）和商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）正依据现有权限推进相关加密法规。

According to a report released by Bitplanet Research Lab on September 22, the failure of the Senate vote mainly delayed the process of incorporating digital commodity definitions and spot market regulatory frameworks into federal law. Existing interpretations of Bitcoin by the SEC and CFTC remain unchanged. On September 15, the Senate voted 49 to 50 (one person did not vote) to reject the initiative to initiate a decision against H.R. Motion to close debate on Bill 3633. Because the motion required 60 votes to pass, this meant that lawmakers never entered the amendment discussion stage and did not have a final vote on the bill.

As previously reported, Bitcoin is less affected by regulatory uncertainty caused by this legislative setback than altcoins, decentralized financial platforms, exchanges and token issuers. The current focus has turned to how the SEC and CFTC can exercise existing powers during periods of legislative stagnation.

Clarity Act obstruction has limited direct impact on Bitcoin

Bitcoin's existing regulatory treatment provides a buffer against the direct impact of the bill's failure. On March 17 this year, the SEC and the CFTC issued a joint explanation classifying crypto assets into five categories: digital goods, digital collectibles, digital tools, stablecoins and digital securities. Bitcoin is listed as one example of a digital commodity.

该机构联合解释明确指出，包括BTC、以太坊（Ether）、Solana和XRP在内的多种资产属于数字商品而非证券。需要注意的是，该解释并未取代“豪威测试”（Howey Test），因此如果资产的发行或销售方式符合特定条件，证券法仍然适用。

这种分类差异限制了《CLARITY法案》投票失败对比特币产生的即时影响。Bitplanet指出，根据3月的解释，BTC继续被视为商品，而立法挫折主要涉及其交易市场的规则，而非资产本身的属性。在众议院通过的《CLARITY法案》版本中，数字商品交易所、经纪商和交易商本需向CFTC注册，在其监督下进行的现货交易也将由其独家监管。但由于缺乏立法支持，CFTC目前仍缺乏监管整个数字商品现货市场的法定权力。因此，比特币保持了当前的分类，而旨在规范交易所和中介机构的联邦注册与监管体系仍处于未完成状态。

比特币的商品地位仍基于监管机构解释

对于比特币而言，一个长期的问题在于其当前的监管待遇尚未写入联邦法律。Bitplanet指出，SEC和CFTC的解释既非成文法，也非具有约束力的规则。贝莱德（BlackRock）在其iShares比特币信托基金第二季度的报告中也将此列为风险因素，指出法院或未来的政府可能会得出不同的结论。SEC主席保罗·阿特金斯（Paul Atkins）也曾表示，需要通过立法来防止未来监管机构逆转现行政策。

《CLARITY法案》本将为数字商品提供法定定义，并建立围绕其现货市场的监管结构。该法案未能跨越参议院的程序障碍，意味着在国会考虑是否重新审议立法之前，比特币在一定程度上仍依赖现有的机构解释。如果SEC和CFTC撤回或修改其3月的解释，或者联邦法院得出不同结论，比特币目前的分类可能需要重新评估。

比特币ETF资金流向显示初期市场冲击已消退

When the Senate vote failed, the Bitcoin and related crypto markets reacted violently, but the sell-off did not continue. On September 15, 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net outflow of US$450.4 million. Fidelity's FBTC lost $214.8 million and BlackRock's IBIT withdrew $161.7 million. The total net outflow for the day was approximately 2.8 times the net inflow of US$159.9 million in the previous trading day. According to aggregate price data used by Bitplanet, Bitcoin fell 3.39% from $78,316 to $75,663. Coinbase fell 10.10% over the same period and Circle fell 11.41%.

However, Bitplanet warned against viewing the CLARITY Act vote as the only reason for Bitcoin's decline. The vote came during the Fed's September meeting, when interest rates and oil prices were also affecting risky assets. The report points out that these variables make it difficult to isolate the impact of regulatory factors on the decline of Bitcoin. Selling pressure then reversed, and Bitcoin rebounded 5.8% to US$80,890 on September 18. The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows of US$159.5 million and US$433 million on September 17 and 18, respectively. Short liquidations during the rally made it difficult to attribute the recovery entirely to regulatory developments.

Since then, BTC has continued its recovery momentum. As oil prices fell, U.S. bond yields fell, short covering, and institutional demand returned, Bitcoin broke through $86,000 on September 22 and briefly hit $87,000, the highest level since the end of January. Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, told the media that ETF inflows confirmed the rally rather than triggered it, and that short-term ETF flows often fluctuate with the price of Bitcoin rather than predicting its direction.

尽管经历了9月15日至18日四个交易日累计1.538亿美元的净流出（尽管最后两个交易日有流入），比特币的价格已远高于参议院投票失败后的初始水平。Bitplanet指出，持续的现货ETF资金流向是其中一个需要监控的因素。

SEC和CFTC的规则可能决定比特币的未来走向

在立法陷入僵局之际，两家监管机构正利用现有权限推进相关加密措施。CFTC主席迈克尔·塞利格（Michael Selig）今年8月表示，工作人员已着手审查一项加密资产市场结构规则，该规则可在现有法定权力下推进。白宫信息与监管事务办公室于9月17日收到了CFTC提交的《监管加密资产交易和监管加密资产市场》提案。在Bitplanet发布报告时，该文件仍处于预规制阶段，其具体内容尚未公开。

与此同时，SEC在参议院投票后也采取了单独行动。9月17日，该监管机构推出了一项为期五年的创新豁免，涵盖符合条件的代币化股票交易平台和流动性提供商。根据这项五年SEC豁免，合格的代币化证券场所可以通过获准的自动做市商和流动性池促进代币化的全国证券市场系统股票的交易，前提是满足关于股东权利、交易限制和智能合约透明度的条件。

Bitcoin may play a role in these markets. Bitplanet said that trading pairs that allow eligible tokenized stocks to be exchanged directly with non-securities crypto assets such as BTC may fall under the exemption. The measure does not change the classification of Bitcoin, nor does it give the CFTC jurisdiction over the entire spot market.

Congress may still review the CLARITY Act. Senator Thom Tillis voted against the motion for closure of debate on September 15, a move that allowed him to submit a motion for reconsideration and formally request reconsideration immediately after the vote. Any next attempt to end the debate would still require 60 votes to pass.