Swan CEO predicts that Bitcoin will hit bottom in October and the altcoin market will gradually rece

Today, the price of Bitcoin hovers around US$63000, with a cumulative decline of about 28% during the year, which has dropped by about 50% from the peak of more than US$126000 set in October 2025. In this context, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten told the media that he expects the market to bottom out in October 2026, about a year after the peak of the previous cycle.

Klippsten's judgment is based on the past cycle pattern he tracks. Historically, Bitcoin has typically hit a bottom about 12 months after the top of each bull market. But he also warned that this model is based on only a few cycles and should not be regarded as an inevitable rule.

He pointed out that Bitcoin may first drop further to $57000 or even $53000, and then quickly reverse. Since then, he expects Bitcoin to climb to about $130000 on the eve of halving in 2028.

This is not the first time Klippsten has tried to predict a bottom. In June this year, he told the media that as the supply of bitcoins held by long-term holders hit a record high (about 14.7 million coins), bitcoin may bottom out earlier than in previous cycles. This cumulative trend suggests that strong holders are absorbing selling pressure faster than usual. This October forecast provides a more specific timeline based on previous views.

Other analysts believe the bottom will come earlier. Markus Thielen of 10x Research believes that if Bitcoin closes above $63000 in August, a bear market bottom can be confirmed, and his company's multiple cyclical indicators will turn bullish. Bitcoin closed close close to $63000 on Sunday, a threshold close at hand but not yet confirmed.

The gap between Klippsten's October timeline and Thielen's August target reflects the uncertainty surrounding the current bottom-forecast effort. Both rely on different signals-the former focuses on holder behavior and cycle intervals, the latter focuses on price movements and technical closings-and neither claims to be 100% accurate.

Altcoins are losing ground as currencies

Klippsten's second assertion has more weight for the broader market. He believes that in terms of currency functions, altcoins are "basically dead" as Bitcoin's competitor. In his view, the best future for cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance is to integrate into the traditional financial system rather than replace it.

When asked which altcoins might still perform well, he mentioned Hyperliquid with one condition attached. He described it as a centralized business wrapped in tokens that would ultimately be regulated like an exchange or bank, rather than being treated as a separate monetary asset.

According to DefiLlama, Hyperliquid has revenue of US$5.9 million in the past week, ranking fifth among DeFi protocols. Its token HYPE has increased by 130% during the year, in sharp contrast to Bitcoin's 28% decline over the same period. It is this difference that makes Klippsten's negative attitude particularly striking: the tokens he listed as exceptions have performed far better than Bitcoin this year.

His argument is more about structure than presentation. A centralized company that issues tokens is very different from a decentralized currency network. He predicts that regulators will eventually treat companies like Hyperliquid as ordinary financial companies.

h3> Institutions are reshaping the altcoin market

Klippsten's skepticism echoes a broader trend revealed in a July report by cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute. Wintermute found that increased institutional participation has changed the landscape of the altcoin market, making market gains narrower and more selective. Liquidity is concentrated towards assets favored by institutions, while small-cap tokens in the long tail of the market continue to weaken.

This is crucial because there have been extensive "altcoin seasons" in the past few cycles, with funds rotating between hundreds of tokens. Now that model seems to be disintegrating. Institutional buyers usually only favor a small number of liquid targets, resulting in a lack of new demand in the rest of the altcoin market.

Klippsten's views on the dominance of Bitcoin's currency, combined with Wintermute's observations about the shrinking breadth of altcoins, point to a trend in which markets are consolidating around fewer assets rather than expanding.

Points for readers to weigh

Klippsten runs a company that focuses only on Bitcoin, so his perspective naturally leans towards Bitcoin over altcoins. This does not mean his data is wrong, but it is worth noting when evaluating his conclusions.

There is also real uncertainty in his bottom forecast. The prediction is based on only a small number of samples from past several cycles, and he himself publicly stated that the pattern may not be repeated. Thielen's opposite view-that a bottom may have formed in August-further highlights the divisions among analysts, even though they are all basing their analysis on similar price data.

For altcoins, the situation is more specific. The decline in long-tail liquidity and the increase in institutional concentration are quantifiable trends, not just opinions. As to whether this means that altcoins are "completely dead" as currency, or whether the market is simply maturing, becoming more refined and selective, readers can judge for themselves based on the data at hand.