Dogecoin fell below US$0.07, and whale holdings rose to 12.18%

Dogecoin fell below the US$0.070 mark, and whale holdings rose to 12.18%.

Dogecoin fell below the US$0.070 mark on Friday, giving up previous gains and continuing a broader bearish trend. Despite signs of stabilization and increased whale activity that provide hope for recovery, the currency is still trading at about 12% below its July high of $0.079.

Retail demand is sluggish, and whale holdings increase

During the recent decline,"whale" addresses that hold large amounts of dogcoin have been steadily increasing their holdings. According to blockchain analytics firm Sanitation, addresses holding 10 million to 100 million DOGE units controlled 12.18% of the total circulation supply as of Wednesday, compared with 11.86% four days ago.

This 0.32 percentage point increase shows that large investors have made significant increases in their holdings in the short term. Such activities can limit the amount of DOGE available for sale on the market and help offset downward pressure from small holders. However, the high concentration of tokens in the hands of whales also carries the risk of increased volatility, as large transactions may have a amplifying effect on price movements.

Currently, addresses holding 10 million to 100 million DOGE units control 12.18% of the total supply, reflecting the continued increase in whale holdings even in the face of depressed prices.

Retail and speculative demand appears to remain weak despite the increased activity of whale activities. In the derivatives market, open interest in Dogecoin perpetual contracts fell 1.2% to US$1.19 billion in the past 24 hours. Trading volume fell even more significantly during the same period, falling 46%.

Open interest volume refers to the total value of active derivative contracts that have not yet been settled. The current decline suggests traders are cautiously reducing their exposure rather than exiting the market entirely. If the volume of open contracts rises in sync with the price, it means that traders are opening new positions in anticipation of further price increases. However, higher futures activity may also increase liquidation risk if prices change suddenly.

List of key indicators

Mini Dictionary: Open Interest refers to the total number of derivative contracts open, reflects market participation and can indicate whether a trader is entering or exiting a position in an asset such as Dogecoin.

·Open interest volume: US$1.19 billion, change of-1.2%
·Trading volume: not provided, change of-46%
·Whale holdings: 12.18%, change of +0.32 percentage points

Key technical bits outline the price outlook for Dogecoin

Dogecoin encountered multiple technical resistance above US$0.070. Prices are currently below an area of dense resistance, highlighting the continued bearish trend on the chart.

Currently, DOGE is located near the middle track of the Bollinger Band, which costs approximately US$0.070. If they stay above this level, buyers are expected to gain momentum to hit the upper Bollinger Band of about US$0.072, but immediate resistance may inhibit further gains.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was 49, slightly below the neutral 50 mark, indicating that selling pressure has eased, but buyers have not yet fully taken the initiative. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence Indicator (MACD) showed a slight positive signal, suggesting a possible shift in momentum, but has not yet sent a clear trend reversal signal.

If the daily closing price continues to stand above US$0.072, it will lay the foundation for testing the 50-day index moving average (EMA) of US$0.074. Breaking through that moving average could be seen as an early sign of short-term bullish.

The next major target is at the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), which currently stands at US$0.081, which is highly consistent with broader US$0.080 resistance. If DOGE can break through this barrier, the upward momentum could continue to the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $0.096 and the psychological level of $0.100.

On the downside, Bollinger's lower track of US$0.068 provides the first layer of support. A break below this level could undermine any emerging recovery momentum and trigger a new round of selling.

The US$0.070 mark is a key watershed for Dogecoin. Holding the area will maintain hopes of an upward breakthrough, while a break below $0.068 could open up room for further declines.