Under Polymarket's bearish bet, Dogecoin price targets a breakthrough of US$0.115

TLDR:

Polymarket odds and treasury sell-off affect 2026 prospects

Dogecoin prices are currently trading around US$0.0866 after falling back from US$0.10, and Polymarket shows a roughly 27% probability of hitting US$0.06 before the deadline.

Ali Martinez pointed out that US$0.090 is the hourly breakthrough point. If Dogecoin can break through this resistance level, it may move towards US$0.115.

The contracts of $0.16,$0.20, and $0.24 cover overlapping outcomes, so their probabilities cannot constitute a composite probability for a price range.

CleanCore disclosed that it sold almost all of its 463 million DOGE units on July 20 for approximately US$33.4 million, while moving to artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Polymarket odds and treasury sell-off affect 2026 prospects

Dogecoin prices were around $0.0866 on August 28, after falling back from last week's high of $0.10. The token is currently down approximately 13.4% from that peak, and the forecast market suggests it is still likely to fall further. Based on Polymarket odds, the probability that DOGE will hit $0.06 in 2026 is 28%.

At the same time, analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that $0.090 is the key level to confirm the hourly breakthrough and move towards $0.115. He also mentioned that prices may fall back to $0.081 before a rebound occurs. These scenarios involve different time frames.

The DOGE price chart shows a potential rebound, while contracts cover price thresholds as of the last trading day of the year.

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Polymarket odds and treasury sell-off affect 2026 prospects

Currently, the dogcoin price contract shows a probability of falling to US$0.06 at about 27%, slightly lower than previous readings. For bullish contracts, the probability of US$0.16 is 23%, US$0.20 is 14%, and US$0.24 is 12%.

These markets track whether DOGE hits specific thresholds during a specified window period, rather than its closing price on December 31. Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT's one-minute candle chart to determine whether relevant highs and lows are met. According to the rules that have been issued, the observation window will end at 11:59 pm Eastern Time on December 31, 2026.

DOGE Polymarket Odds

These results also overlap. If the price of Dogecoin continues to rise to US$0.24, then the conditions of the US$0.16 and US$0.20 contracts will also be met halfway. Therefore, adding up these probabilities will double count overlapping events, without obtaining the true probability that prices will fluctuate within that range.

The total trading volume for this event was approximately US$109,377. 0.06 Trading volume in the U.S. dollar market was US$26,411, while the US$0.16 contract attracted US$29,290. Trading volume measures the flow of funds rather than the number of traders supporting a given outcome.

New dynamics have been added to corporate treasury activities.

CleanCore disclosed that it sold almost all of its 463 million DOGE units on July 20, earning approximately $33.4 million. Its prospectus describes a transition to artificial intelligence infrastructure and data center projects.

The company also priced a $100 million offering on August 11 involving approximately 275.8 million shares and additional warrants. CleanCore is listed on the American section of the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol ZONE. The document documents a completed treasury exit rather than a newly announced plan to sell DOGE.

Pre-financing warrants cover an additional 124.2 million shares, along with investor warrants covering up to 400 million shares. CleanCore expects to use net proceeds primarily for artificial intelligence infrastructure, working capital and general corporate purposes.

The dogcoin price bull flag pattern places the US$0.090 resistance at the focus

Martinez believes that the dogcoin price structure may form a bull flag pattern on the hourly chart. This pattern is usually manifested in a sharp price rise and then consolidation within a narrow range, often showing a downward channel.

Dog coin $DOGE seems to be forming a bull flag on the hourly chart. While this pattern still allows prices to pull back to the important $0.081 support level, the key observation level is $0.090. If the hourly closing price breaks through this resistance level, it may trigger a breakthrough towards $0.115...

His confirmation conditions require an hourly closing price above $0.090. A brief break through resistance does not meet this closing requirement. Prior to this, the expected rise towards $0.115 was only a conditional target rather than a confirmed breakthrough.

Reaching US$0.090 means that the price of Dogecoin needs to increase by approximately 3.9% from US$0.0866. The target price of US$0.115 is approximately 32.8% higher than the reference price and 27.8% higher than the breakthrough threshold. This difference explains why expected increases vary based on different starting points.

On the downside, Martinez pointed out that US$0.081 is a support level that may be tested again. If you fall back to this position, it means a drop of about 6.5% from $0.0866. As a result, the proposed bullish pattern allows for further weakness before a breakthrough.

In an August 21 post, Martinez said 30 billion DOGE units had been traded around $0.081. He used this concentration to explain why this level is important for support. Historical price activity does not guarantee that buyers will defend the price again.

Based on his on-chain analysis, Martinez's broader outlook for dogcoin prices is that if the US$0.081 support level holds, the target price will point to US$0.177, pointing out that there is limited resistance. This forecast is different from the bullflag target of $0.115 for the immediate target. A rise to $0.177 means a rise of approximately 104.4% from $0.0866.