Shiba Inu prices fell 4.9% from monthly highs: Why does SHIB continue to fall

柴犬币价格分析：为何月涨17%后陷入停滞？

周三下午，柴犬币（Shiba Inu）的价格为0.00000581美元（约合0.00000513欧元）。相较于9月23日触及的30日高点0.00000610美元，当前价格下跌了4.9%。然而，在过去一个月中，柴犬币整体仍上涨了17.0%。这种矛盾构成了当前的核心局面：该模因币在9月份大幅上涨，但在过去一周内几乎毫无动静。

任何想要理解今日价格为何承压的人，不应只看图表，而应关注生态系统中的两个关键数据以及交易结构。这两个因素比任何K线形态都能说明更多问题。

价格在9月高点附近窄幅震荡

根据CoinGecko的数据，周三下午柴犬币价格为0.00000581美元。过去24小时内，柴犬币下跌了1.43%，过去七天下跌了1.77%。其市值为34.2亿美元，在所有加密货币中排名第36位。过去24小时的交易额为1.014亿美元，略高于30日均值约9090万美元。

比起单日数据，波动区间更值得关注。自9月23日的高点以来，每日收盘价一直在0.00000568美元至0.00000595美元之间波动。这意味着在七天内，波动幅度仅为4.8%。对于一种在同一月份从0.00000494美元涨至0.00000610美元、涨幅达23%的币种来说，如此微小的波动显得尤为突出。市场仿佛陷入了停滞。

Analysts call this narrowing "Compression." The implication is that buyers and sellers reach a balance within a narrow range, and neither party has invested enough money to push prices out of that range. The compression state will eventually break, but it does not predict the direction.

Why is selling pressure still building after a 17% monthly increase?

The rise in September did not originate from within the Shiba Inu ecosystem, but from the broader market. During the same period, Bitcoin rose 8.5%, and Dogecoin rose 16.2%. At this stage, memoins are seen as leveraged bets on overall risk appetite: when markets rise, they rise more strongly; when markets stall, they fall back faster.

This is exactly what's happening right now. Bitcoin has been trading sideways for several days in a row, falling 0.51% in 24 hours. Without the injection of fresh funds from above, Shiba Inu will lack the momentum to rise. Those who entered in September for $0.000049 currently hold about 18% of the paper float. This group's profit-taking demand encountered an order book with almost no new capital inflows.

In addition, there is another structural issue that has a greater impact on Shiba Inu than large cryptocurrencies: the circulation supply is as high as 589.24 trillion coins. Every penny of price increase needs to be financed through this huge amount. To increase the market value from US$3.42 billion to US$4 billion, a net inflow of approximately US$580 million is needed. Considering that the daily transaction volume is only US$101 million, and most of it is round-trip transactions between the same addresses, this is an extremely high threshold.

Activity on the Shibarium chain is sluggish and the ecosystem does not provide demand signals

Shibarium is the project's Layer 2 blockchain. Layer 2 is a two-layer network built on top of existing blockchains that settles transactions at a lower cost and faster speed, and writes the results into the main chain in batches. In the Shiba Inu project, Shibarium is supposed to be the engine: every transaction in it burns part of the SHIB fee, thereby reducing the circulation supply.

However, current calculations have not worked. According to an analysis by The Crypto Basic on September 22, Shibarium processes approximately 1,680 transactions per day. In August 2025, this number was 4.69 million. The decline was as high as 99.96%.

Part of the reason is a self-imposed technical failure. In mid-September, a refactoring of the chain forced the team to permanently replace all public RPC endpoints. RPC stands for remote procedure call, which refers to the address where the wallet communicates with the blockchain. Users who still use the old address will not be able to see anything on Shibarium. We detailed the response in our September 29 article on Shibarium RPC handover. As of September 20, the re-indexing progress of the block browser Shibariumscan was only 53%.

When it comes to price, the reason is only secondary. Importantly, the Internet has not sent out any demand signals for buyers to build arguments for several weeks.

Burning 68 million tokens represents only 0.0001% of the supply.

Burning tokens means sending coins to an address that no one can move anymore. These tokens are therefore withdrawn from circulation in the accounting sense. For years, this has been the most important argument for Shiba Inu supporters.

The latest data puts it in its proper context. The tracker Shibburn reported that 68,290,532 SHIBs, valued at about $395, were burned in the last 24 hours. This is only 0.00001% of the 589.24 trillion in circulation. At this rate, mathematically it would take more than 23,000 years to halve supply. We detailed this calculation process in our September Burning Balance article.

This does not mean that combustion is worthless. It only means that at the current scale, combustion cannot explain price changes, and when the base base is only a few hundred dollars, news headlines about a 154% increase in the value of combustion are not indicative of demand.

Limit orders are better than market orders: How to deal with 589 trillion pieces in circulation

At a price of 0.00000513 euros, 100 euros can buy approximately 19.5 million pieces of SHIBs. The actual consequences of this order of magnitude do not exist in Bitcoin or Ethereum.

The first is the tick size, which is the minimum price step recognized by the trading venue. If the provider quotes Shiba Inu coins in eight decimal places, the single step size is 0.00000001 euros. Compared to current prices, this is equivalent to 0.19%. As a result, the cost of a market order spanning two or three steps may be higher than the average daily fluctuations over the past week. Limit orders (where you set the highest price) can prevent this.

The second is the Spread, which is the difference between the best buy price and the best sell price. On small exchanges, the spread of memes is significantly wider than on large exchanges because there are fewer pending orders in the order book. Daily trading volume of € 89.6 million is spread across dozens of platforms; buy on less liquid platforms and you will pay higher spread costs. Please refer to our comparison of crypto exchanges for which providers are licensed under EU MiCA regulations and differences in fee models.

The third is the minimum order size. Some providers set minimum orders for memes in units rather than euros. Please check whether you support partial transactions before purchasing, otherwise the order may be stuck in the order book at unfavorable prices.

Spreads and minimum order sizes can eat into the daily benefits of small transactions:

One example makes this specific. Suppose you invest 100 euros to buy Shiba Inu coins, pay a transaction fee of 1.49% and a price difference of 0.4%, and the value you hold after purchase is 98.11 euros. To get back to 100 euros, the price would have to rise by 1.93%. The average absolute daily fluctuation of Shiba Inu over the past week was only 1.1%.

In other words: In the current tight range, the cost side has a greater impact on returns than the price side. This is not a reason to oppose the token, but a reason to recommend caution in choosing trading platforms and order types.

Highly leveraged products increase liquidation risk in narrow fluctuations

Narrow ranges induce traders to use leverage because otherwise the volatility will appear too small. And this is the trap. Liquidation refers to forced liquidation when margin is insufficient to maintain a position. Under 10 times leverage, the clearing threshold is about 10% away from the entry point, and fees and funding rates need to be deducted.

For Shiba Inu, the width of the range over the past seven days was 4.8%. Compression breakthroughs usually cause prices to move quickly in multiples of the previous range over a short period of time, and occur in both directions, as the stop loss order on one side is cleared first. If you use high leverage, even if you end up making a correct judgment, you are likely to be on the wrong side of the process first.

If you use derivatives, there should be three key data on the desktop before entering any position: clearing price, funding rate, and cost per turnover. The differences between different platforms are huge.

One-year holding period and 1000 euro tax exemption: Calendar for old holders

For German investors, the calendar is as important as the price. The proceeds from the sale of cryptocurrencies are private disposal transactions as stipulated in Article 23 of the Income Tax Law. Holding tokens for more than one year will not be subject to income tax when sold. For one year, a tax exemption of € 1000 per year applies: if the sum of all private disposal gains is below this amount, no tax will be paid; if it exceeds, the full tax will be levied, not just the excess.

Therefore, anyone who buys Shiba Inu coins in September will have a full year in September 2027. Anyone holding a 2024 position has already passed this deadline. This makes a big difference in deciding whether to sell in the current tight range, and it is one of the few factors you can accurately control. The prerequisite is a clear record of the purchase date; a form containing the date, quantity and price per entry will suffice.

Additional note: The tax exemption applies to each person and all private disposal transactions within each calendar year, rather than being calculated separately for each token. If gains from other cryptocurrencies are also realized in the same year, they need to be combined.

Dog coin rose 16.2% in 30 days, Shiba Inu coin rose 17.0%

Looking at the larger memecoin sector, the situation becomes clearer.

The trading price of Dogecoin was US$0.094576, down 1.34% in 24 hours and up 16.2% in 30 days. Shiba Inu Coin rose 17.0% in 30 days, slightly better; while in the past seven days, Shiba Inu Coin fell 1.77%, performing much better than Dog Coin's 3.51% decline.

So, the two are running simultaneously, and this is the real message: the fluctuations in Shiba Inu reflect the beta coefficient of memin rather than the specific needs of the project. Currently, online data does not confirm the view of Shibarium as a driving force.

Key points to determine October's trend: US$0.0000570 and US$0.0000610

下行方面，第一个相关区域位于0.00000570美元，即七天区间的下沿。其下方是9月16日的月度低点0.00000494美元。上行方面，首先面临的是0.00000595美元，即当前区间的上端，之后是9月23日的月度高点0.00000610美元。

这些点位并非预测，而是测量基准。其用途在于让你提前将自己的决策与之挂钩，而不是在行情发生时即兴发挥。提前设定限价、止损和仓位大小的交易者，其行为方式与反应式交易者截然不同。

需要指出的是：上述所有数值均来自每日收盘价。日内价格可能会短暂穿透这些区域而不改变基本面情况。对于止损单而言，这是一个已知问题；恰好设置在广泛关注的水平上的止损单，触发频率往往高于平均水平。

柴犬币价格总结：要点回顾

在价格波动前，确定交易平台和订单类型。
在0.00000513欧元/token的价格下，跳动大小、价差和费用对回报的影响超过每日波动。请使用限价单代替市价单，并事先在加密交易所对比中比较条款。

用区间而非愿望来衡量杠杆。
过去七天的区间为4.8%。如果使用衍生品，进入前请注意清算价格、资金费率和每笔周转的费用；平台间的差异已在永续合约DEX概览中列出。

Update purchase dates and hosting settings.
Record the purchase date of each position to demonstrate compliance with Section 23 of the Income Tax Act with the one-year holding period requirement and check the RPC address in the wallet after Shibarium switches. Suitable devices can be found in Hardware Wallet Comparison.

(As of September 30, 2026. This article does not constitute investment advice. Price and fee structures are subject to change; please check terms with your provider before purchasing.)