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BTC Arthur Hayes 重申比特币2030年达百万美元的长期预测
Arthur Hayes 进一步坚定了他对加密市场最具侵略性的长期预测之一。他依然认为，在债务驱动的人工智能热潮可能遭遇挫折之际，比特币有望在2030年达到100万美元。
据报道，Maelstrom 的首席投资官将2027年底或2028年初视为一个潜在的转折点。届时，人工智能基础设施支出的放缓可能会暴露出用于融资数据中心、芯片和计算基础设施的巨大信贷规模中的弱点。
为何AI崩盘可能成为比特币的利好因素
Hayes 的观点并非关注人工智能公司突然变得无利可图，而是聚焦于基础设施繁荣期间积累的债务会发生什么。在一篇早前的文章中，他将这种局势与2008年金融危机而非互联网泡沫破裂相提并论，并指出最大的脆弱性可能存在于贷款人和基础设施项目中，而非大型科技公司。
该理论直截了当：如果与人工智能相关的项目难以产生足够的现金流来偿还债务，损失可能会蔓延至银行、私人信贷基金和其他放贷机构。随后，政府和中央银行可能会通过向金融系统注入流动性来做出反应。
Hayes 认为，货币扩张最终将使比特币等稀缺资产受益，并推动比特币走向其100万美元的目标价位。
Currently, there are signs that the financing aspects of the artificial intelligence boom are coming under increasing scrutiny. Reuters reported on September 30 that artificial intelligence-related lending in the U.S. leveraged financing market has reached approximately US$88 billion in 2026, compared with approximately US$20 billion at the beginning of 2025. Investors have also become more cautious when lending to risky artificial intelligence companies.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted similar concerns earlier this year. Citing estimates from Morgan Stanley, the IMF said capital expenditures on data centers could reach $2.9 trillion by 2028. This far exceeds the cash flow available to very large companies, increasing demand for private credit, corporate debt and securitization.
Why 2027 may be a critical year
Hayes predicts that announced growth in artificial intelligence capital expenditures will begin to slow in the second half of 2027, which may reveal which projects have been built based on overly optimistic demand assumptions.
This makes his Bitcoin predictions highly dependent on the occurrence of a series of events, rather than just the continued adoption of cryptocurrencies. Namely: AI spending slows, credit losses occur, policymakers respond with more liquidity, and Bitcoin benefits from the resulting monetary expansion.
Currently, Bitcoin has shown signs of strength. On October 1, Bitcoin traded at approximately $83,895 after rising by approximately 0.6% in the past 24 hours.
