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FollowingGalaxy Digital significantly lowers the probability of passing the CLARITY Act
Galaxy Digital has lowered its forecast for the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to only 10%, a sharp reversal from the optimism surrounding the bill a few months ago.
Alex Thorne, head of company-wide research at Galaxy Digital, announced the revised number in an August 14 post on X, which is down from 75% in May.
The collapse of confidence reflects a series of unresolved political disputes and an increasingly tight Senate schedule.
The window closes quickly
The bill would divide regulatory authority over U.S. cryptocurrencies between two federal regulators. Senators will return to Washington on September 14 and face a roughly three-week work period before starting preparations for the midterm election campaign around October 2.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune submitted a motion to close debate before the August recess, setting a procedural vote for September 15.
This leaves little room for fault tolerance.
Galaxy Research said in an August 14 report that it lowered the likelihood of the bill passing to 10%, down from 60% after a bipartisan review by the Senate Banking Committee in May and 30% at the end of July.
As Thorne puts it: "The reality is that CLARITY is now more about politics than policy."
Disputes hinder progress
Although Congress has generally agreed on how to divide cryptocurrency regulatory powers between the SEC and the CFTC, ethical disputes and stablecoin provisions have now become the biggest obstacles to passage of the bill.
One of the most controversial issues involves moral aspects. Some members of Congress want the bill to restrict members, officials and staff from profiting from cryptocurrency-related activities while in office.
In terms of stablecoins, the American Bankers Association believes the bill creates a loophole that allows digital asset platforms to provide benefits equivalent to interest in addition to the GENIUS Act's prohibition on issuers paying interest.
The CLARITY Act was passed in the House of Representatives in July 2025 by a vote of 294 to 134, with strong bipartisan support. However, the whole of 2026 will be dominated by negotiations on issues such as DeFi, stablecoins, ethics provisions and law enforcement powers.
If the September procedural vote fails, supporters will have to wait until after the election to try again, and the new Congress will have less time to push the bill through, making it unlikely that it will pass before the end of 2026.
In addition, independent of Galaxy's estimates, the betting odds on the passage of the CLARITY Act in 2026 on the forecast market Polymarket have dropped from approximately 82% to approximately 16% over the same period.
