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BTC Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a negative premium for 90 consecutive days, and U.S. demand signals are weak or exacerbating market downside risks.
Bitcoin's Coinbase premium index has remained negative for 90 consecutive days, a U.S. demand signal that may make the market more vulnerable to further selling.
Key Points
Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium Index had been negative for 90 consecutive days, at-0.1066% at the time of the report's release. Bitcoin fell to US$62,923.64 from a level of approximately US$79,000 in May, while momentum indicators continued to reflect weakness. According to Glassnode analysis, buyer liquidity below the market has been eroded, which may make prices more sensitive to new selling pressures.
U.S. demand for Bitcoin
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been negative for three consecutive months, and it is difficult for Bitcoin to recover to the US$70,000 mark seen in May. The index compares bitcoin prices on Coinbase and Binance, and a negative value means that assets are trading on Coinbase at a lower price than Binance, indicating weak U.S. spot demand. Bitcoin is currently trading at US$62,923.64 after falling from a level of approximately US$79,000 in May, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) mostly remaining below neutral during the period. Bollinger bands also reflect continued volatility. Although Whale Wallet has increased its holdings of 54,000 bitcoins since mid-June, the weakness continues.
Bitcoin downside risks
The prolonged Coinbase discount does not in itself confirm a bear market or institutional retreat, but it further proves that U.S. spot buyers are not providing enough demand to reverse the decline. At the same time, price momentum remains weak. Glassnode also found that buyer support below Bitcoin's market price was weakening-following a large concentration of buying orders, especially in June. These orders once created a liquidity buffer by providing potential sellers with more buyers when prices fell, but this buffer has now weakened. With fewer orders directly below the market price, stronger selling pressure could cause Bitcoin to fall faster than in a deeper order book. The data did not suggest a slump was imminent, but suggested that there could be less resistance on the downside. The current pattern continues its decline from about $79,000 in May to nearly $63,000. Despite subsequent increases in whale holdings and multiple attempts to recover higher prices, Bitcoin failed to regain its footing at $70,000 during this period, highlighting that continued spot demand, rather than buying alone in large wallets, remains critical to recovery prospects.
