Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin will reach US$150,000 in 2027, while lowering its strategic price ta

Bernstein predicts: Bitcoin may reach US$150,000 by mid-2027, and Strategy Company's target price will be lowered.

Bernstein predicts that by mid-2027, the price of Bitcoin may climb to US$150,000. The company believes that rising government debt and concerns about currency devaluation are the main factors driving demand for scarce assets such as Bitcoin.

Macroeconomic concerns support the bitcoin target price

Bernstein's analysts described a benchmark scenario: Bitcoin will recover to approximately $125,000 by the end of 2026, and then rise to $150,000 in the first half of 2027. Looking further into the future, they predict that Bitcoin could reach a cyclical peak of about $300,000 in 2029.

The company pointed out that Bitcoin prices have rebounded sharply by 28% in the recent ten days, after retreating about 50% from their October 2025 high. Analysts believe that as Bitcoin broke through $77,000, this rebound has brought Strategy, the main bitcoin holding company, back to profitability.

Bernstein also pointed out that governments of various countries are facing increasing fiscal pressure, and the U.S. sovereign debt has reached nearly US$40 trillion. In a high interest rate environment, debt service costs continue to rise. Analysts believe policymakers may end up tolerating greater currency devaluation rather than adopting unpopular fiscal tightening to stabilize public finances.

Scarcity and institutional admission

The supply limit of 21 million bitcoins remains at the heart of Bernstein's argument because it underpins the narrative of bitcoin's scarcity. The company cited reports to explain how Bitcoin's fixed issuance mechanism distinguishes it from traditional currencies.

Institutional entry channels are also evolving. Bernstein reported that about 59% of bitcoin supply has not been transferred for more than a year, while the rise of spot bitcoin ETFs and more companies incorporating bitcoin into the treasury have broadened market participation. This structural change has helped alleviate the deep retracements of 75% to 90% in past Bitcoin cycles.

(Note: Spot ETFs, which are spot exchange-traded funds, allow traditional investors to directly gain price exposure to assets such as Bitcoin without directly holding the assets or handling custody. This structure simplifies institutional and retail investment in cryptocurrencies.)

Bernstein predicts: "Under the pressure of currency devaluation, if institutional capital inflows accelerate, Bitcoin may hit a new high, and is expected to reach US$200,000 in mid-2027 and US$500,000 in 2029."

Higher Forecasts and Strategy Corporate Risk

Bernstein also proposed a more optimistic "bull market scenario": the rapid influx of institutional capital may push Bitcoin to reach US$200,000 in mid-2027, with a peak of nearly US$500,000 in 2029. The company reiterated its long-term outlook that by the end of 2033, if macroeconomic trends and adoption rates continue to improve, Bitcoin will be close to $1 million.

Spot ETFs may play an important role in this upward trajectory, providing Bitcoin exposure to traditional investors through mature financial channels.

Scenario comparison:

Baseline scenario: mid-term 2027 target price of US$150,000, 2029 peak price of US$300,000, 2033 outlook does not mention

bull market scenario: Mid-term 2027 target price of $200,000, 2029 peak of $500,000, 2033 outlook of $1 million

Although maintaining bullish expectations for Bitcoin itself, Bernstein lowered its target price for Strategy shares from $450 to $350, reflecting updates to Bitcoin cycle forecasts and concerns about faster equity dilution. The new price target means there is still about 176% room to rise from Strategy's closing price of $126.83 on Tuesday.

Strategy is known for actively holding bitcoins and currently holds 840,447 bitcoins, accounting for approximately 4% of the bitcoin circulation supply. Recent company actions have shown a more cautious attitude, suspending new Bitcoin purchases and raising funds through equity sales.

Bernstein estimates that Strategy's coverage of its interest and preferred stock dividend obligations is approximately 3.9 years, providing some flexibility in its capital allocation. The company's financial framework allows it to sell bitcoin, maintain reserves or buy back shares as needed.

However, Bernstein points out one key difference: While the company remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, Strategy's equity structure brings dilution and financing risks that are not faced by directly holding Bitcoin. Bernstein's analysis highlights the difference between holding Bitcoin directly and gaining equity exposure through companies such as Strategy, which can be affected by dilution and funding needs.