Bitcoin, Nvidia and Nasdaq are waiting for U.S. employment data, with only 55,000 new jobs expected

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August non-farm employment data outlook: Market focuses on the Federal Reserve's policy path

Economists generally expect that the U.S. economy will add about 53,000 to 56,000 new jobs in August. The forecast marks a modest recovery from a revised reduction of 23,000 jobs in July. Unemployment is expected to remain around 4.1%, although some forecasts suggest it could rise to 4.2%.

Market expectations are even more cautious based on the forecast market pricing cited by DeItaone, with Kalshi traders predicting about 46,000 new jobs, while forecasts from major banks are significantly divided. Wells Fargo, for example, has a forecast of 80,000.

This uncertainty is critical because the report was released amid a heated and volatile debate over whether the Fed will raise interest rates at its September 15 - 16 meeting.

Bitcoin broke through the US$81,000 mark and faced its first major test.

Shortly before the release of non-agricultural data, Bitcoin prices were close to US$81,200, up more than 5% from Thursday's opening price. BTC prices also exceeded the closely watched 50-week moving average (approximately US$81,041) for the first time since late 2025.

The rally accelerated as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggested he might support keeping interest rates unchanged if inflation continued to cool. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September have accordingly lowered, Treasury yields have fallen, and risk appetite has improved. Coinpaper's recent analysis of the Fed's interest rate hike expectations shows that as Fed officials make remarks, these probabilities change rapidly, and the cryptocurrency market immediately benefits.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately US$731 million on Thursday, the strongest single-day inflow since January, while Bitcoin successfully broke the US$81,000 mark. Ethereum and Ripple (XRP) also performed well in the rebound in the overall crypto market.

Nasdaq led gains, as bond yields became the real market trigger

Stocks are cautiously approaching the release of this important report. Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 0.4%-0.5%, S & P 500 futures were basically flat, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell slightly before release. Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, is particularly sensitive to bond yields because higher long-term interest rates reduce investors 'present value assessments of future earnings.

Currently, the 10-year Treasury bond yield hovers around 4.77%, while the 2-year Treasury bond yield is about 4.36%. This makes bond market performance arguably more important than the headlines of non-farm payrolls data themselves.

If the employment data is significantly stronger than expected, it may reignite market expectations for another Fed rate hike, push up yields and the US dollar exchange rate, and put pressure on long-cycle technology stocks and Bitcoin. Previous analysis by Coinpaper has demonstrated the same transmission mechanism: when U.S. bond yields rise, both the stock market and Bitcoin are under pressure. Conversely, a moderately weak report could strengthen the case for a September moratorium on interest rates, with the opposite effect.

Possible market interpretations of August employment results

are well above consensus expectations: Yields rise, interest rate hikes increase, Bitcoin/technology stocks are at risk.
About 50,000 - 60,000 jobs: The Federal Reserve expects limited repricing.
Far below forecast: Yields fell, expectations of a pause in interest rate hikes strengthened, and risky assets were supported.
Negative growth: Initial interest rate relief, but recession concerns may arise.

The last situation is particularly important. Weak employment does not automatically constitute a good sign. Coinpaper's early employment report analysis showed that unexpected fluctuations in employment data could quickly affect Bitcoin's trend by changing the Fed's expectations, but if the data were exceptionally bad, it could instead raise concerns about growing economic weakness.

For Bitcoin, which has settled above $81,000, and Nasdaq, which is trending higher, the key question on Friday was not just whether hiring was weak, but whether hiring was weak enough to appease the Fed but not enough to scare the market.