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BTC Bitcoin shows extraordinary resilience, institutional ETFs need to hedge against geopolitical risks
Despite the recent escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran, Bitcoin has shown extraordinary resilience. Bitcoin prices remained firm below the $80,000 mark after U.S. troops attacked three Iranian crude oil carriers and international oil prices climbed above $96 a barrel. Previously, such conflicts have caused bitcoin prices to fall sharply, with traders often selling crypto assets due to rising energy prices and rising government bond yields. However, there was no immediate panic selling in the market this time, which was particularly eye-catching.
Inrush of institutional funds: More than US$900 million was absorbed in two days
According to CoinGlass data, as of press time, the trading price of BTC was approximately US$79,900, up about 0.5% in 24 hours, and the open interest in Bitcoin futures was close to US$53.4 billion. Different from the past, the key force supporting the currency price this time comes from ETF demand at the institutional level.
According to Farside Investors, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF attracted US$174.6 million in inflows in a single day on September 4, followed by a record net inflow of US$730.8 million in the previous trading day. In just two trading days, investors invested approximately $905.4 million in the product. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT products topped the list, attracting $571.4 million in funds during these two trading sessions alone.
This strong performance continues the fund's strongest monthly trend in 2026. In August, as Bitcoin prices rebounded by about 25%, the overall Bitcoin ETF attracted approximately $3.52 billion in inflows. This contrast has increasingly highlighted its importance: In the current geopolitical context has deteriorated significantly and oil price volatility has intensified, Bitcoin has failed to replicate the drastic reaction it experienced below $77,000 earlier this week.
The situation in Iran may indirectly impact Bitcoin through Federal Reserve policies
The greater risk currently may come from indirect channels. The U.S. Central Command confirmed that after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. aircraft carrier and a guided missile destroyer, the U.S. military launched strikes on the "Dowy","Stark 1" and "Kylo". Fortunately, there were no U.S. casualties. Subsequently, Brent crude oil prices remained at around US$96.28 per barrel, and the conflict continued to threaten shipping and Iranian export channels around the Strait of Hormuz.
In addition, pressure is also building. According to reports, OPEC + is expected to maintain its existing October production policy unchanged rather than announce another meaningful round of production increases. Reuters pointed out that the Iranian conflict has disrupted exports and increased the difficulty of the organization to influence the market. The ripple effect is crucial because Friday's strong U.S. jobs report has pushed the odds of a September Fed rate hike to about 59 percent. Data showed that the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, far exceeding market expectations.
Key economic data to be released soon, the market faces a major test
As a result, Bitcoin is heading towards another major test. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. producer price index (PPI) will be released on September 10, followed by the more important August consumer price index (CPI) report, which will be released on September 11.
Bitcoin's current mild market reaction suggests that ETF buying is helping to absorb geopolitical selling pressure. But if the conflict in Iran continues to push oil prices higher and inflation data unexpectedly higher next week, markets may find it difficult to ignore these negatives. Previously, we have discussed in depth the game between Bitcoin's $80,000 mark, ETF demand, and Fed policy risks, and the latest tanker attack has further exacerbated this complex situation.
