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BTC Bitcoin fluctuated around US$77,600, still far from the key point at which cryptographic data platform CryptoQuant confirmed the bull market.
Early Monday morning, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around US$77,600, lower than the US$81,700 confirmed bull market closing price set by CryptoQuant at approximately US$4,000. Despite the previous two-week rally, the inflow of whale accounts, the negative Coinbase premium rate and leveraged retail buying are in sharp contrast to the breakthrough situation. The current resistance range is between $77,100 and $80,200, with lower support in the $70,000 and $62,000 to $65,000 regions respectively.
Analysis of Bitcoin Selling Pressure
After a two-week rebound, Bitcoin prices still failed to stand above CryptoQuant's confirmation line. At the same time, whale activity, leveraged retail trading and weak demand from U.S. institutions have cast a shadow on the prospects of market breakthroughs. According to CryptoQuant's quick indicator data, the "Exchange Whale Ratio" in an hour's reading is 0.93. The agency flags this level as a warning sign because it measures exchange inflows from the largest wallet addresses. Although this short-term window was not enough to establish long-term trends, retail traders acted in the opposite direction: the Fear and Greed Index rose to 66, and the buy and sell ratio stood at 1.12, indicating aggressive leveraged buying behavior.
In addition, a negative premium for Coinbase means that Bitcoin is trading at a lower price on major U.S. exchanges than the offshore market, indicating that U.S. institutional demand has not driven the market. CryptoQuant analyst GugaOnChain warned that prices have shown signs of running out of momentum at the 20 level, while the FEI index is as high as 99.53%. He pointed out that these conditions may herald the arrival of Long Squeeze.
"Since the price momentum has been exhausted at the level of 20 and the FEI index is locked in the absolute noise zone (99.53%), the stage for long squeeze has been set." GugaOnChain said. Once a long squeeze is triggered, leveraged bulls will be forced to close their positions and sell. As the positions unwind, downward pressure may increase; at this time, the whale is transferring a large number of tokens to the exchange, further exacerbating the selling pressure.
CryptoQuant bull market threshold analysis
CryptoQuant pointed out in a September 11 report that recent resistance levels are between $77,100 and $80,200. Within this range, long-term holders have released a cumulative supply of up to 539,000 BTC units this year. This supply overlaps with the new whale sell-off. Analyst Morenos said the upper edge of the range has historically been a profit-taking area for traders.
If Bitcoin closes above US$81,700-the average closing price over the past year-a new bull market will be confirmed under CryptoQuant's framework. Resistance levels further above are at $83,600 and $88,700 respectively. Currently, this key threshold has not yet been broken.
If there is a correction in Bitcoin, CryptoQuant believes the underlying support is around $70,000, followed by the $62,000 to $65,000 range. This year, holders have accumulated approximately 476,000 BTC in the above range. These areas will become important support points if leveraged bulls liquidate their positions early before buyers absorb overselling pressure.
CryptoQuant had made its bull market confirmation condition as early as August a weekly close of US$81,700. Bitcoin once again approached that level this month but failed to break through, so the latest rally has brought the market back to a critical point in the same pending test.
