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FollowingThe technological boom will eventually be compared to the Internet bubble, and artificial intelligence is no exception.
Every wave of technology will eventually trigger analogies with the "Internet bubble" period, and the field of artificial intelligence is no exception. Currently, trillions of dollars are pouring into chips, data centers and artificial intelligence models, and many companies, including Nvidia, have reached extremely high valuations. However, calling artificial intelligence a bubble simply because it is expensive ignores the real question: What will cause this boom to burst?
An increasingly important answer is this: There is a huge gap between the revenue generated by artificial intelligence and the money needed to build the infrastructure behind it. Nscale, a company backed by Nvidia, provides a fresh example. According to its initial public offering (IPO) filings, the AI cloud company achieved revenue of US$140.6 million in the first half of 2026, but a net loss of US$1.02 billion. Despite huge losses, its revenue increased by 1,252% year-on-year.
Artificial intelligence faces revenue test
Large companies are not investing billions of dollars just because of the popularity of artificial intelligence. They are betting that future AI revenue will ultimately justify today's huge capital expenditures. Therefore, the importance of revenue growth far exceeds market hype.
例如，据报道，OpenAI预计其收入将从2026年的约360亿美元增长至2030年的3,500亿美元。但其内部预测也显示，从2026年到2030年，其自由现金流将出现约2,780亿美元的负值，同时计算和基础设施支出将达到约8,560亿美元。
Coinpaper对AI数据中心债务风险的审视揭示了这一问题的严峻性：即使未来人工智能需求最终令人失望，数据中心仍需支付利息、电费并进行再融资。
什么可能真正引爆人工智能泡沫？
市场的崩溃可能并不需要人们停止使用人工智能。如果收入增长速度低于投资者当前的预期，崩盘就可能发生。这可能导致数据中心利用率不足，削弱对新GPU的需求，并使负债累累的基础设施公司更难进行再融资。利率上升会加剧这种压力，因为随着借贷成本上升，资本密集型项目的吸引力会降低。
此外，还存在集中度风险。Nscale的最大客户贡献了其上半年收入的52%，这说明对于某些基础设施提供商而言，失去或缩减一个大额合同可能会产生巨大的影响。
