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BTC 本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）的声誉建立在“抢先一步”之上
作为热门YouTube频道《Into The Cryptoverse》背后的加密货币分析师，考恩专注于比特币周期分析。他因在大多数市场参与者尚未察觉时便准确预言了2021年的加密市场崩盘而广受赞誉。这一战绩使他成为该领域最受关注的看空声音之一。这也让他在2026年做出的预测变得难以忽视，且更难收回。
曾经奏效、如今失效的理论
考恩花费数月时间论证一个熟悉的序列正在重演：能源价格上涨将推高收益率，迫使美联储加息，进而提振美元并压低比特币（按市值计算的最大加密货币）的价格。就在9月4日，他仍认为比特币周期底部尚未到来，概率高达65%，部分情景下价格甚至可能跌至44,000美元。
然而，他逻辑链条中的每一个环节都成立，唯独最后一步出了问题。本周，比特币强势突破85,000美元大关，而非如预期般下跌，这打破了支撑其此前观点的2014年、2018年和2022年中期走势模式。
公开认错：不找借口，甘愿受罚
9月21日，考恩在X平台发帖称：“我错了。不会找任何借口。我理应接受批评。”
我错了。
不找借口。
我理应接受批评。
--Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen), September 21, 2026
US$831 million short liquidation revealed the truth
This breakthrough triggered more than US$831 million in bitcoin short liquidation (that is, a bet to short the price of bitcoin), which was completed within 24 hours, far exceeding the long liquidation of approximately US$130 million in the same period. Traders who bet on the lower bottom predicted by Cowan paid a heavy and immediate price.
In a YouTube video, Cowan reviewed the history of interest rate hikes and admitted that no previous Fed tightening cycle had led to an immediate sell-off of Bitcoin, which directly shook the foundation of his core argument. He said the burden of proof had now shifted from bulls to bears.
