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$15.6 billion in bitcoin options expire on Friday-what does that mean

2026-09-24 03:33:56

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About US$15.6 billion in bitcoin options expire in Deribit early Friday morning.

According to Deribit's own data on a line-by-line breakdown of the contract book, approximately US$15.6 billion worth of bitcoin options will expire early Friday morning. This equates to approximately 182,000 open interest contracts in BTC, which contains 106,200 call options and 75,900 put options.

Call options give the buyer the right, rather than the obligation, to buy Bitcoin at a specified price before a specified date; put options, conversely, allow the holder to sell at that price. Traders buy call options when they expect prices to rise, and put options when they expect prices to fall.

The put/call ratio here is 0.71-meaning there are significantly more calls than puts, indicating that the market is betting that prices will continue to rise. This trend is basically in sync with the "greedy" sentiment that floods the market as reflected in the "Cryptographic Fear and Greed Index".

The $15.6 billion was not the amount of cash transactions that actually occurred on Friday. This is a notional figure that represents the bitcoin value corresponding to the contract, rather than the funds flowing between accounts.

Options traders pay close attention to a level called the "max pain": at this price, the largest proportion of contracts will expire and the seller will theoretically push the price closer to that level. Deribit's own dashboard showed Friday's biggest pain point at $76,000, which is about $9,000 below Bitcoin's current price of about $85,000.

作为实际预测指标，“最大痛点”的记录褒贬不一，因此不应将其视为绝对依据。

出售这些期权的机构必须通过买卖现货比特币来对冲其风险敞口，以应对价格波动。当交易商做空看涨期权且价格上涨时，他们通常会买入比特币以保持对冲状态，从而为已经进行的反弹提供动力。一旦合约到期，这种对冲流动就会消失——部分流入下一个季度，部分则彻底蒸发。

行权价集中度清晰地显示了这种对冲压力的聚集点。目前板上最活跃的行权价是70,000美元，Deribit的数据显示，该位置同时拥有最大的看涨头寸（8,705 BTC）和最大的看跌头寸（7,653 BTC）——这意味着来自两个方向的对冲压力同时被吸引至此。

在看涨方面，次重的头寸位于90,000美元（7,222 BTC），其次是100,000美元（6,950 BTC）。在看跌方面，其余主要的防御性押注集中在60,000美元（5,571 BTC）和75,000美元（4,257 BTC）。

Deribit的结算并非当天的唯一考验。美国耐用品订单数据和密歇根大学9月最终情绪读数都在到期后几小时内公布，而芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的9月比特币期货也在同一天结算。

美联储已于9月16日将目标利率区间上调至3.75%至4.00%，因此这些发布中的任何意外情况都会对比特币等对利率敏感资产产生额外影响。

无论如何，九月历来有测试比特币动能的习惯。在过去13年中，有8年比特币在该月收盘时下跌，Decrypt将此模式追踪为“红色九月”。

这一次，多头似乎准备打破这一历史规律。

Deribit的合约将于周五UTC时间8:00结算。CME期货将在当天稍晚的UTC时间15:00结束这一系列的测试环节。

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