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XRP期权在价格大幅反弹后转为看涨

2026-09-24 06:34:20
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XRP option skewness has strengthened significantly

After XRP prices rebounded, Calls received a higher premium. Despite the strong bullish sentiment, this does not guarantee inevitable profits.

XRP's one-week 25Delta bullish and bearish bias has climbed to 9.3 volatility points. This reading is in the 95th percentile, indicating unusually strong demand for call options. In contrast, for most of the time from late 2025 to early 2026, XRP options mainly show negative bias. The indicator briefly broke through 15 volatility points in late August and then cooled down.

XRP has risen by about 18% in the past week, supporting renewed demand for upside exposure. As demand for upside risk exposure increases, XRP options traders are willing to pay higher premiums for call options.

Markets bias upward convexity

Coinbase Markets points out that the XRP options market is leaning towards upward exposure. At the 25Delta level of the week, call options are 9.3 volatility points higher than comparable put options, a reading in the 95th percentile. This suggests that traders are willing to pay higher fees for call options than put options after XRP has risen about 18% in the past seven days.

Coinbase Markets describes this market condition as biased towards upside risk exposure.+ 9.3 A reading of "means that the implied volatility of the selected call option is 9.3 points higher than that of comparable put options. It should be noted that this does not mean that traders expect XRP prices to rise by 9.3%, nor does it constitute a direct price forecast.

此次变化发生在短期XRP期权更青睐下行保护的时期之后。在2025年末和2026年初的大部分时间里,一周偏度保持为负值,有时甚至低于-10个点。近期,随着XRP从接近1.39美元反弹至1.55美元附近,期权需求也转向了看涨期权。

反弹带动看涨期权溢价上升

这一转变发展迅速。XRP的一周偏度曾在8月下旬短暂超过15个波动率点,随后回落。目前该指标已回归两位数区间,表明交易者接受短期上行敞口的高昂价格。

25Delta风险逆转比较的是具有相似价格敏感度期权的隐含波动率。正读数意味着看涨期权拥有更高的溢价;负读数则意味着看跌期权成本更高,反映出对下行保护的需求更强。

看多定位并不能保证收益

期权偏度可以显示交易者在保护或敞口方面愿意支付更多费用的方向,但它无法确认XRP接下来的走势。强烈的看涨需求可能反映看多头寸、对冲策略,或是交易者在价格快速变动后寻求敞口。

在最近的反弹中,XRP一度突破1.60美元,伴随而来的是大户活动和新钱包创建的增加。这一动作为看涨期权需求的回升提供了背景,尽管当波动率、持仓结构或现货价格发生变化时,期权溢价可能会迅速改变。

Currently, a skewness of 9.3 points shows a strong preference for call options over put options. As the XRP spot market responds to gains and demand continues to change, traders will be watching closely whether skewness remains high.

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