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ZEC 美债收益率飙升叠加全球风险偏好降温，加密市场遭遇强劲抛售压力
受美国国债收益率急剧上升及全球金融市场风险 appetite 下降的影响，加密货币市场面临显著的抛压。比特币在盘中一度攀升至约 87,300 美元，随后回吐涨幅，测试并跌破 84,000 美元关口。主要加密资产的回撤对山寨币市场产生了更强烈的冲击，导致多种大型代币跌幅加速。其中，狗狗币（Dogecoin）以 7% 的跌幅领跌，而 XRP、Zcash 和 HYPE 则录得 5% 至 6% 的价值缩水。随着国债收益率持续走高，市场预计短期内加密货币市场的波动性仍将维持高位。
美债收益率上行压制比特币表现
美国国债借贷成本的上升对加密市场的风险偏好造成了负面影响。10年期美国国债收益率上涨 15 个基点，收于 5.11%，在此背景下，比特币从约 87,300 美元回落至 83,900 美元区域。由于国债提供更高的无风险收益，这使得比特币等不产生利息的风险资产对投资者的吸引力相对降低。同时，高昂的借贷成本也加剧了杠杆化加密头寸的压力。
山寨币反应更为剧烈，宏观不确定性凸显
Compared with Bitcoin, altcoins show greater sensitivity during pullbacks. Dogecoin fell 7% to slightly rebound above US$0.09;ZEC, XRP and HYPE fell between 5% and 6%; Ethereum, Solana and BNB fell between 2% and 3%. TRX prices are basically flat. Dogecoin, as the largest decline among the major tokens, reflects that investors are tending to stay away from high-risk assets in an environment of increasing macroeconomic uncertainty.
The rebound in oil prices and U.S. economic data disturbed market sentiment
Brent crude oil prices rose more than 4%, hitting about US$104 per barrel, ending a six-game losing streak. The recovery in oil prices has revived market concerns about inflation. At the same time, S & P's global survey of U.S. companies showed that economic activity grew at its fastest level in more than five years, with the composite index reaching 58.4, setting a new high since July 2021. Strong economic data supports expectations that interest rates will remain high for a longer period of time.
In addition, when the U.S. Treasury issued US$70 billion in five-year treasury bonds, subscription demand fell short of market expectations, further exacerbating selling pressure on financial markets. The auction yield was 5.033%, the highest level since 2006. The secondary market was priced about 3 basis points above the target yield before the offering, indicating that investors demand higher returns to buy U.S. debt. Rising government bond yields and increasing borrowing costs have further intensified the suppression of risky assets such as Bitcoin and altcoins.
Key point analysis and outlook
Ledn co-founder Mauricio Di Bartolomeo pointed out that given that Bitcoin remains below $85,000 and that options worth approximately $14 billion will expire in Deribit on Friday, the market needs to focus on the massive call option holding dynamics triggered by this. As a result, the US$85,000 region has become a key observation point for short-term price movements.
Summary: The decline in Bitcoin prices is not only due to internal factors in the crypto market, but also driven by macro factors such as rising U.S. bond yields, strong economic data and rebound in oil prices. For Bitcoin,$85,000 is a key line of defense in the short term, and fluctuations in government bond yields and expiring option contracts may cause the market to maintain high volatility. In contrast, dogcoin and other altcoins may continue to show more drastic price fluctuations than Bitcoin.
