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BTC On-chain audit: How many bitcoins are related to Satoshi Nakamoto?
Whenever an ancient Bitcoin wallet "wakes up", the same question resurfaces: Is Satoshi Nakamoto finally back? The latest on-chain research results show that the answer is still no.
Rebuilding the "Patoshi" model
Blockchain analytics company Bitquery recently completed a forensic reconstruction of the so-called "Patoshi model." This unique mining fingerprint was originally identified by researcher Sergio Lerner and is widely believed to be related to the anonymous founder of Bitcoin. Bitquery rebuilt this fingerprint from the original block data, ranked 54,316 blocks from the earliest mining era of Bitcoin, and tracked every coin as of September 1, 2026. Its top-level restore results are consistent with the public Patoshi list on 99.2% of blocks, and no exceptions were found in a timestamp sorting test covering 5,836 pairs of adjacent blocks.
Depending on the strictness of the application model, the total amount of bitcoins related to Satoshi Nakamoto also varies. Strict application of this model yields a figure of less than 900,000 bitcoins, while the broadest estimate is about 1.17 million bitcoins. This broadest estimate from Bitquery is the largest single estimate produced to date, exceeding previous readings from BitMEX Research, Whale Alert and Jameson Lopp.
Key finding: The vast majority of coins never move
无论具体总数是多少，Bitquery 审计的主要结论非常明确：绝大多数硬币仍然未被触动。在其对 Patoshi 集合的较严格重建中，审计发现有 1,023,352 枚 BTC 被证实从未移动。已知来自 Patoshi 时代区块奖励的最后一次交易发生在 2017 年 12 月，而早在 2009 年和 2010 年的早期移动总额仅为约 1,550 枚 BTC。
近期另一笔沉睡硬币的移动事件部分重燃了这一争论。今年 9 月初，一批 2010 年 3 月挖出的 600 枚比特币在沉寂 16 年后发生移动，私钥持有者在 30 分钟内连续花费了这些硬币。一些头条新闻暗示这与中本聪有关。对此，Bitquery 予以反驳。该公司认为，涉及的 12 个区块中有 10 个并不符合 Patoshi 模式。Bitquery 还指出，自 2020 年以来活跃的其他早期硬币中，没有任何一枚符合研究人员预先设定的用于识别为中本聪硬币的标准。
Bitquery 还强调，将 Patoshi 矿工与中本聪联系起来虽然是一个强有力的推论，但仍是间接证据。正如一位分析师所言，区块链记录显示有人持有密钥，但它无法确认这个人是谁或曾经是谁。简而言之，最新证据并未显示中本聪重返市场。
