Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in the coming months? The latest forecast is released

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Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in the coming months? The latest forecast is released

2026-09-28 00:36:47

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美国就业与消费韧性强化美联储维持高利率预期

美国经济在就业和消费方面的持续韧性，进一步强化了市场对于美联储可能将利率维持在较高水平更长时间的预期。根据彭博社和路透社的调查，经济学家预计美国9月非农就业岗位将分别增加约9万至10万个，失业率预计将维持在4.1%至4.2%之间。

消费领域的强劲表现有望延续。据彭博社预测，美国8月实际个人消费支出环比可能增长0.5%。若该预测成真，这将是超过一年以来最强的月度增幅。就业与消费的韧性表明，美国经济的需求尚未显著降温，这为美联储保持紧缩货币政策提供了空间。

另一方面，通胀压力仍是制约美联储行动的重要因素。市场预期美国8月整体和个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数环比增速将加快。此前，核心PCE价格的年化增长率曾达到3.3%，超过了美联储长期2%的通胀目标。

美联储本月将政策利率上调25个基点，这是三年来首次加息，并暗示年内后续可能还有进一步的加息计划。结合近期的经济数据，市场对10月再次加息25个基点的预期正在升温。

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