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Following
BTC Core Points
- Tensions in Iran suppress market sentiment.
- ETF demand is strong and traders 'positions are adjusting.
- Bitcoin fell back below $84,000 after hitting a seven-day high.
Bitcoin prices fell below $84,000 on Monday, after setting a seven-day high above $87,000 last week. This decline followed as geopolitical risks returned to the markets. During the week of September 21 to 25, U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net inflow of US$2.39 billion. Analyst Wealthmanager said leverage was being cleared and listed $80,300 as potential support. Traders are closely watching the release of U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation data on September 30 and employment data on October 2.
Bitcoin prices fell below $84,000 on Monday, after hitting a seven-day high above $87,000 last week. The decline comes as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran put pressure on risky assets. In early trading Monday, BTC was trading at US$83,208, down 1.55% in 24 hours. The price slipped from $85,159 to an intraday low of $82,705 before recovering to around $84,000. The asset price remains well above its mid-September low. CoinGecko data showed that BTC closed at around $75,590 on September 15 and climbed above $86,000 in less than a week.
Tensions in Iran suppress market sentiment
Donald Trump The president rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and suspend fighting. The plan was proposed during the United Nations General Assembly and includes a seven-day window period before further negotiations. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said Tehran was still willing to reach a diplomatic deal but would also be "fully prepared" if fighting resumed. Trump said he expected the conflict to end "soon" but did not rule out the possibility of more U.S. strikes.
Oil prices remain highly sensitive to the news. WTI crude oil futures traded above $93 in early Monday morning, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note had risen above 5% since the conflict broke out.
ETF demand and trader positions
Despite the correction, according to Farside Investors, during the week from September 21 to 25, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of US$2.39 billion. Each trading day showed positive capital flows, of which BlackRock's IBIT attracted approximately US$1.16 billion.
Cryptocurrency analyst Wealthmanager posted on platform X that the volume of open contracts in BTC has fallen back to the level before the previous round of price increases. The analyst pointed out that leverage was being purged while prices remained in the $84,000 - 85,000 range, and said the last time this occurred, prices moved towards $87,000.
Wealthmanager认为当前形态看涨，但较短时间框架仍显示看跌结构。该分析师指出，如果回调持续，80,300美元可能是潜在的支撑位。
衍生品数据显示市场呈现分化态势。资金费率处于0.0020%的中性水平，未平仓合约量仅上升0.38%，至近80亿美元。币安上的顶级交易者多头/空头比率为1.38，而散户交易者比率为1.27。然而，主动买入/卖出比率为0.79，表明市场卖单多于买单。
技术指标显示动能降温。MACD柱状图在零轴附近持平，RSI为59.71，资金流量指数（MFI）为59.35。BTC交易在其50日均线（76,495美元）和200日均线（71,172美元）之上，但已跌破其7日均线（84,461美元）。
交易员Merlijn The Trader分享了一张图表，对比了BTC当前的走势模式与谷歌在2021年后的复苏路径。该交易员质疑比特币是否会遵循类似的路径。
阻力位位于86,000至87,000美元之间。即时支撑位在82,222美元，随后是81,236美元以及20日均线附近的80,691美元。
交易员们现在正关注即将到来的美国经济数据。作为美联储首选通胀指标的8月个人消费支出（PCE）数据将于9月30日公布，9月就业数据则紧随其后于10月2日发布。
