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Against macro headwinds, Chaowei Semiconductor (AMD) shares fell 3%

2026-09-29 03:36:54

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In pre-market trading on Monday, shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fell about 3% as higher U.S. Treasury yields and higher oil prices dragged on the performance of technology stocks. Brent crude oil prices rose more than 3% to $108 a barrel after President Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire offer, fueling market concerns about inflation. At the same time, the 10-year U.S. bond yield exceeded 5.2%, and the 30-year benchmark yield exceeded 5.5%, both close to the highs in many years.

In the previous month, AMD's share price has risen by about 30%, mainly due to the market's enthusiasm for its potential connection with Meta's Muse AI platform and expectations for the resulting increase in CPU demand. Bank of America raised AMD's price target from $620 to $720 and predicted that the server CPU market could expand to $211 billion by 2030.

Technical indicators show signs of overbought

Before Monday's decline, AMD had experienced significant gains. The stock traded 16.2% above its 20-day moving average and 68.2% above its 200-day moving average. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recorded 73.24, exceeding the 70 level commonly considered overbought area. This technical form makes the stock vulnerable to selling pressure when market sentiment changes.

此次回调发生在由Meta Muse AI平台引发的狂热反弹之后。基于这一叙事，AMD和Intel在过去一个月中均上涨了约30%。其核心逻辑在于，执行自主任务的日益复杂的AI代理需要更多的计算资源，这可能扩大由AMD、Intel和基于Arm架构的半导体公司制造的服务器CPU的可寻址市场。

Meta已表示，随着公司在代理式AI（agentic AI）领域的推进，其计算需求“正在演变为需要更多的CPU”。JonesTrading首席市场策略师Michael O’Rourke指出，市场已将Muse视为一个催化剂，刺激原本就紧张的CPU市场。这种积极情绪推动AMD上周首次突破1万亿美元的市值里程碑。

华尔街上调目标价位

9月25日，BofA Securities维持对AMD的“买入”评级，同时将目标价从620美元提高至720美元。该公司预计，服务器CPU市场将从2026年的610亿美元增长至2030年的2110亿美元，其中1800亿美元将来自AI应用。

BofA还引用Anthropic与Akamai之间的CPU基础设施协议作为额外证据，表明随着AI系统变得更加具有代理性，CPU的重要性正在提升。Piper Sandler于9月10日开始覆盖AMD，给予“增持”评级和目标价600美元。Raymond James于8月25日将AMD升级为“强力买入”，设定目标价为641美元。

目前，AMD的平均共识评级为“买入”，平均目标价为615.30美元。该股的市盈率接近161倍，代表了显著的溢价估值。根据Benzinga的边缘排名，AMD在动量方面得分为99.29，质量方面为95.62，成长方面为95.6。但其价值评分仅为3.3。

AMD占iShares半导体ETF的8.74%，占First Trust纳斯达克半导体ETF的6.79%，占Pacer数据和数字革命ETF的6.52%。近期的反弹也受益于Meta Connect活动，该公司在那里推出了Charm，这是一种专为直接集成Muse而设计的手持设备。扎克伯格宣布，Muse即将在Meta智能眼镜平台上推出，并且Meta正通过沃尔玛、百思买、丝芙兰、Wayfair、Dick’s Sporting Goods和Gap等零售合作伙伴扩大Muse的分发范围。

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