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XRP XRP若突破50周指数移动平均线，有望冲击1.80至1.90美元：分析师观点
加密货币分析师ChartNerd在9月28日发布的一段YouTube视频中指出，如果XRP能够突破其周线和月线图上的阻力位，价格可能攀升至1.80至1.90美元。这一预测基于该资产已连续六周未能突破的关键水平，且分析师警告称，若在此处遭遇拒绝，可能会导致更深度的回调。
XRP面临周线与月线图的阻力考验
在9月28日发布的视频中，ChartNerd重点关注了XRP的“高斯通道”（Gaussian Channel）。这是一种围绕回归带构建的技术指标，可用于追踪长期价格趋势。当前的直接测试目标是50周指数移动平均线（EMA），目前约为1.52美元。在过去六周内，XRP未能有效突破该水平，分析发布时其交易价格接近1.47美元。此外，月度高斯通道也增加了另一层阻力，其上回归带位于1.50美元附近。
ChartNerd的看涨情景取决于XRP能否收盘于这些关键水平之上。据其分析，若能持续突破上回归带，1.80美元和1.90美元的目标价将触手可及；反之，若失败则可能导致更大幅度的回撤，并在年底前形成更高的低点。不过，他并未将这些结果视为既定事实。
Data showed that XRP has fallen 3.5% in the past 24 hours, but has risen by a similar margin in the past seven days. Its 24-hour trading range is approximately US$1.47 to US$1.54, and trading volume rose more than 20% to approximately US$3.23 billion. Still, the asset price remained well below its all-time high of $3.65, a drop of nearly 60%.
Meanwhile, XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net inflows of US$75.89 million last week, extending the product's consecutive weekly net inflow record to 11 weeks, with cumulative net inflows reaching approximately US$1.79 billion. These data are in sharp contrast to the chart structure, indicating that investors continue to inject money into spot XRP funds even though token prices remain below resistance.
What reference does historical data provide?
ChartNerd's analysis draws on the long-term historical performance of XRP in the Gaussian channel. In the past, the bottom of cycles has typically fallen below the middle tropical zone before a larger rebound occurs. For example, after the bottom in June 2022, the price rose by 90% and hit the same regression zone, where the Ripple token peaked and fell back before ushering in a subsequent breakthrough. But analysts stressed that XRP does not need to repeat these historical patterns.
目前，月度中线位于0.94至0.95美元附近，2015年、2017年、2020年以及2022年6月的低点均曾触及或跌破该区域；而三个月期通道的上回归带位于0.80美元附近，尚未被测试。然而，就当前技术面而言，关键点仍集中在1.50至1.52美元区域。分析师认为，若能在此区域实现持续收盘，将改变其所描述的市场结构；若无法做到，则深度回撤的情景仍将存在。
