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BTC 
ETH Bitcoin briefly fell back to US$76,700 and then rebounded, and the market absorbed interest rate hike expectations.
After the latest inflation data was released, the Bitcoin price briefly fell to US$76,700, and then quickly recovered to around US$78,000. According to QCP Capital analysis, this "controlled" market reaction shows that investors have basically absorbed expectations that the Fed may raise interest rates by 25 basis points.
The company pointed out that at current prices, Bitcoin's technical structure remains constructive, but the restoration of market confidence still depends on the subsequent impact of this week's macro events on the overall market.
Different capital flows: The divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum
Currently, the Bitcoin trading range is above the main support area of US$75,000 to US$76,000, and the resistance level is between US$80,000 and US$82,000. In contrast, the flow of funds in Ethereum presents a significantly different pattern.
Data showed that during the shortened week of the holiday, the spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of US$462.7 million. However, Friday's redemptions slowed significantly to $13.2 million, well below Thursday's $282.7 million. At the same time, the Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of nearly $197 million in a week. Despite previous outflows, inflows of as high as $216.4 million in a single day on Friday drove the increase in total weekly net inflows.
QCP Capital stated that this differentiation reflects the differentiated position positioning between the two crypto assets. Technically, Ethereum faces resistance of $2,500 to $2,550, with support at $2,400 to $2,425, and secondary support at $2,300 to $2,350.
波动率维持低位，对冲策略主导市场
比特币的波动率也保持在相对低位。QCP Capital指出，波动率曲线仍呈上行趋势，而25-delta风险逆转指标约为-3个波动点。这意味着看跌期权的价格略高于看涨期权，尽管整体持仓水平仍处于压力较低的区间。该公司补充道，交易者更倾向于采取对冲策略，而非押注强烈的单边方向。
比特币展现韧性，抵御科技股震荡
多种因素可能影响加密市场的风险偏好。例如，由于无人机袭击暂时导致沙特阿拉伯东西向管道停运，油价上涨。若中断持续，能源成本上升和金融条件收紧可能会给风险资产带来压力。
另一方面，随着公众就安全问题讨论人工智能发展放缓，与人工智能相关的股票承压。QCP Capital认为，相较于科技和半导体板块的剧烈下跌，比特币表现出的相对韧性是其“非相关性定位”的一个积极信号。然而，如果拥挤的科技股交易出现更深度的平仓，可能会通过削弱整体风险偏好和收紧流动性波及加密市场。
监管催化剂与制度 adoption 前景
The crypto market also faces another regulatory catalyst from Washington. The Senate procedural vote expected on Tuesday on an updated version of the CLARITY Act is expected to clarify the respective areas of responsibility of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
This move is expected to strengthen the logical basis for medium-term institutional adoption by reducing regulatory uncertainty, but procedural progress does not guarantee final passage of the bill.
