Bitcoin price approaches $80,000, Trump hints at dialogue with Iran

Bitcoin prices rebounded about 3% to US$79,143, geopolitical uncertainty still remains

After hitting an intraday high of US$79,325, Bitcoin prices rose about 3% to close at US$79,143. Despite contradictory statements from the United States and Iran, which left the path to a potential agreement unclear, market sentiment still warmed up.

Summary of key data

• Bitcoin prices climbed from a low of US$76,388 to a high of US$79,325 in the day.
• Trump said Iran wanted a deal, but Iran's official media dismissed this claim.
• The strongest clearing clusters nearby are in the US$79,900 to US$80,000 range.
• Oil prices exceed US$100 and the Federal Reserve's decision remain the main risks facing U.S. investors.

Trump's remarks boost Bitcoin rebound

Bitcoin has seen a recovery despite ongoing conflicts in the region as US President Donald Trump hinted that Iran wants to reach a deal with Washington. "The failed Iranian regime is eager and eager to make a deal," Trump wrote on the Truth Social platform. He added that while Washington was open to the idea, it would be up to him to make the final decision on whether to engage with Tehran. His remarks raised the possibility of restarting negotiations after months of military confrontation and repeated failures to reach a lasting agreement.

在反弹过程中，比特币（BTC）首先突破78,000美元关口，达到78,940美元，随后进一步上涨。TradingView上的Binance日线图显示，BTC开盘价为76,842美元，最低下探至76,388美元，随后最高触及79,325美元。图表捕捉时，该资产交易价格约为79,143美元，实现了3%的日涨幅。

与此同时，美国股市也从早前的下跌中恢复过来。在市场此前蒸发超过6000亿美元市值后，约有5700亿美元在三个小时内回流至股市。此前，由于人工智能公司高管呼吁放慢开发速度以应对安全风险，科技股面临额外压力。这些言论为近期贡献了大量美国股市涨幅的科技板块增添了另一重不确定性。比特币的反应表明，在特朗普提出外交可能性的背景下，交易者愿意重新承担风险。然而，伊朗官方媒体驳斥了德黑兰寻求快速达成协议的说法，使得市场缺乏双方政府的确认。

据LiveSquawk援引伊朗ILNA通讯社报道，基于一名巴基斯坦消息源的信息，美国曾寻求一项“分阶段”协议。该报道并未证实华盛顿和德黑兰已接受最终条款。

油价高于100美元使美伊风险持续活跃

The diplomatic dispute comes as attacks involving Iran's allies put additional pressure on oil production and shipping routes. According to Reuters, pro-Houthi forces in Yemen fired missiles and drones at a military airport in Hamis Musayit, Saudi Arabia. The group responded to Saudi strikes in Yemen by claiming targets were hangars, radar equipment, runways and ammunition storage facilities.

In another attack, the Saudi east-west oil pipeline was suspended, which Riyadh blamed on Iranian-backed militants in Iraq. The route allows oil exports to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, which is particularly important given the current restricted traffic in the Strait. Traders told Reuters that a long-term shutdown of the pipeline could affect as much as 4% of global oil supply. Brent crude rose more than 4% before the weekend, but gave up some of its gains after Trump comments, and then traded close to $106 a barrel, while U.S. crude prices remained above $100.

For U.S. consumers, Reuters reported that the average retail diesel price has reached a record high of $6.23 per gallon. Continuing energy costs could drive up inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decisions, creating a direct link between the conflict and the situation of U.S. Bitcoin investors. Previous analysis pointed out that energy costs and actual government bond yields are factors that limit the development of Bitcoin. Analysts said the oil shock could keep inflation expectations high, while tighter monetary policy would reduce liquidity without addressing losses in energy supplies.

Oman originally planned to host Iranian and Gulf officials to discuss the future operation of the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign Minister Said Badr Albusseidi postponed the meeting "in the interest of consensus" but did not announce a new date. Iran said Saudi Arabia requested an extension. Tehran also released a list of 77 ships it said violated its operating rules in the strait and warned that future violations could lead to fines, detention or confiscation.

Bitcoin faces resistance near US$80,000

Technical readings show that Bitcoin has returned to the middle track of its daily Bollinger Band, but has not yet broken through the upper track. The daily Bitcoin price chart shows that the middle track of the Bollinger Band is around US$78,521, the upper track is approximately US$81,035, and the lower track is approximately US$76,008. BTC breaking through the mid-track means buyers control the short-term range, but the upper track and recent highs create resistance between $80,000 and $81,035.

CoinGlass's one-week leverage liquidation heat chart shows that the most recent concentration area of leveraged positions is located below $80,000, with the brightest band appearing between $79,900 and $80,000, which may become a target if buyers continue to advance. In addition, there are several smaller clearing pools between US$80,200 and US$80,700. If this region can be effectively broken through, the Bollinger Band upper limit of US$81,035 will become the focus, followed by the larger US$82,000 region pointed out in Bitfinex's recent analysis.

Kinetic energy indicators remain uncertain. The daily MACD line is located around 1,579, below the signal line of approximately 2,211, and the bar chart has dropped to approximately-631. Although both MACD lines remain above the zero axis, bearish crosses and red histograms suggest that momentum has waned after Bitcoin rebounded sharply in August.

Since BTC first exceeded US$80,000, price movements have been uneven. The buyer successfully defended the pullback towards the middle of $76,000, but failed in several attempts to gain ground above $81,000. The current trend has brought Bitcoin back to the top half of the range, but a breakthrough has not yet been confirmed. On the downside side, the middle track of the Bollinger Band near US$78,521 constitutes the first line of technical support. A loss to this level would expose the $77,500 to $78,000 area, with a heat map showing a series of smaller leverage clusters in the area. The largest lower liquidity concentration area is located around US$76,000, close to the lower reaches of the daily Bollinger Market. A continued break below the region could expose another clearing pool near $75,000 to $75,400.

美联储政策为美国投资者带来另一考验

伊朗冲突并非唯一能扰乱比特币复苏的事件。一份独立的市场报告指出，美联储将于9月15日和16日举行会议，其政策声明、更新后的经济预测以及主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）的新闻发布会定于周三举行。会议前，市场定价美联储加息25个基点的概率为87%。此类决定将使联邦基金目标利率区间从3.50%-3.75%调整为3.75%-4.00%。

Bitfinex分析师表示，美联储的经济预测可能对比特币的影响大于利率公告本身，因为它们将显示官员们预期是一次加息还是更长期的连续动作。较高的国债收益率可以提高政府证券的回报率，增加对持有在非收益资产（如比特币）资本的竞争。

在美国上市的现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）提供了衡量美国投资者需求的另一个指标。在截至9月4日的那一周，这些产品吸引了9.867亿美元的资金流入，此前一周为9.245亿美元。连续三周的净流入使总流入额达到约38亿美元。

目前，美联储政策、油价以及霍尔木兹海峡局势的发展将与比特币图表上可见的清算水平重叠。美联储定于周三下午发布决议，随后是沃什的新闻发布会和央行更新后的经济预测。

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