11月24日Monad解锁：为何107亿枚MON约占流通供应量的90%

Monad 团队代币解锁：2026年11月24日的关键数据与风险分析

2026年11月24日，Monad 项目团队代币的一年锁定期将正式结束。这一关键节点的数据源自 Monad 基金会发布的官方代币经济学白皮书：在主网上线一周年之际，释放的团队代币约占初始总供应量的 10.7%。鉴于 Monad (MON) 的初始供应量为 1000 亿枚，这意味着将有约 107 亿枚代币进入流通市场。而目前市场上实际流通的 MON 约为 118.3 亿枚。因此，仅团队这一部分的释放量就达到了当前市场流通量的近 90%。

需要强调的是，本文并非价格预测，也不提供任何形式的投资建议。文章旨在回答一个更为具体的问题：该日期安排了哪些释放计划？这些释放量相对于流通供应量有多大？以及有多少数据可以从原始来源中得到证实？因此，任何持有、质押或计划入场 MON 的用户，都应在该日期前的两个月内，重新审视自身的仓位规模及质押锁定状态。

为何选择撰写此文：数据混乱的现状

截至目前，德语区尚无关于此日期的详细报道。这正是撰写本文的实际原因，因为当前的数据状况令人困惑：多个数据聚合平台列出的 11 月 24 日释放总量差异巨大，且至少有一个平台显示的流通供应量与其自身的市值数据自相矛盾。下文将详细梳理哪些数据可信，哪些不可信。

2026年11月24日 Monad 的具体释放计划

Monad 公共主网于 2025 年 11 月 24 日正式上线。所有团队和投资者的锁定期均从这一天开始计算，因此第一个大型解锁节点（Cliff）出现在周年纪念日上。Monad 基金会在其代币经济学概览中明确指出：

“所有团队代币在主网上线后的第一年内处于锁定状态。团队代币将在上线一周年时释放，并在随后的三年内逐步解锁。”

此外，文件还提到：

“在主网上线一周年之际，已释放的团队代币将占初始代币供应量的约 10.7%。”

在代币经济学中，“Cliff”（悬崖/断崖式解锁）指的是锁定期结束、首批通常数量较大的代币一次性可用的时间点，随后通常是按月进行的持续释放。本案的结构正是如此，且涉及三个群体同时解锁：

• 团队份额：总计约 270 亿 MON，约占初始供应量的 27%，分配给 Monad 基金会和 Category Labs 的员工、创始人及承包商。释放从周年纪念日当天开始，并在此后三年内分摊。在纪念日当天，释放的是上述提到的约 10.7%。
• 投资者份额：约 197 亿 MON，约占 19.7%。原始来源指出：“自 Monad 公共主网上线起执行四年锁定期，包含一年悬崖期，此后每月等额解锁（1/48）。”
• Category Labs 金库：约 39.5 亿 MON，约占 3.95%，专门用于未来的员工薪酬。

对于团队部分，来源明确给出了周年日的百分比；而对于投资者部分，来源仅说明了机制，未给出当天的具体金额。这正是模型计算出现分歧的焦点所在。

为何各数据聚合平台给出的总额差异巨大？

针对 2026 年 11 月 24 日，数据服务提供的总和大约在 166 亿至 171 亿 MON 之间。这种差异源于对投资者“一年悬崖期”的不同解读：

1. 解读一：认为悬崖期意味着 48 个月度分期中的前 12 期（即投资者份额的四分之一，约 49 亿 MON）一次性到期。
2. 解读二：认为只有第一期月度分期在悬崖期当天到期。

原始来源并未明确说明采用哪种解读。因此，任何声称该日具体总额的行为，都是在陈述一种模型假设，而非确凿证据。鉴于此，本文将重点放在下限数据上，即无需任何解读即可成立的事实：团队份额约 107 亿 MON。这一数字由原始来源的文字表述所证实，且仅凭此一项就已达到今日流通量的约 90%。

数字陷阱：如何判断可靠的 MON 流通供应量

在流通供应量方面，数据来源的差异超过四倍。一份广泛使用的数据集报告 MON 的流通供应量约为 510 亿枚。然而，该数据既与同一文件中的市值相矛盾，也与 CoinGecko 的数据不符。

交叉验证的方法很简单，适用于任何代币：用市值除以价格，得出的结果即为提供方实际用于计算的流通供应量。以 MON 为例，CoinGecko 显示 2026 年 9 月 26 日的价格为 $0.0263，市值约为 3.11 亿美元。计算得出约 118 亿枚代币，这恰好是 CoinGecko 报告的流通供应量：11,825,165,000 MON。

造成巨大差异的根本原因在于概念混淆：“已解锁”（Unlocked）不等于“在流通中”（In Circulation）。根据原始来源，主网上线首日约有 494 亿 MON 未被锁定，其中仅 385 亿枚用于生态系统发展，由 Monad 基金会管理。这些代币在技术上虽已自由，但并未进入市场交易。若将“已解锁”误认为“流通中”，会导致数据偏差达四倍。若按 510 亿计算，团队份额看似仅占流通量的 21%，而实际上则接近 90%。

107 亿 MON 在市场中的真实体量

以下两个比较旨在将体量置于背景中，而不涉及价格预测：

1. 数量对比：107 亿枚待释放代币 vs. 118.3 亿枚现有流通代币，比例约为 90%。
2. 价值对比：按当前价格 $0.0263 计算，团队份额的名义价值约为 2.8 亿美元，而总市值约为 3.11 亿美元。

这两个数据均为快照，明确不代表未来的抛售行为。“释放”意味着可用，而非立即处置。根据原始来源，团队代币还需经历通常为期三至四年的归属期（Vesting），这与个人加入日期挂钩。只有当代币既解锁又归属完成后，个人才能真正拥有。因此，11 月 24 日实际能释放到个人手中的数量，取决于尚未公开的个体时间表。

The impact of unlocking on user positions-and what it doesn't mean

Unlocking is a supply event on the Timeline, not a directional signal. It is safe to say that the volume of saleable transactions may increase from this date. What is uncertain is whether it will be sold, when it will be sold, and at what price. Anyone trying to deduce price direction from the unlock date is supplementing the data with assumptions.

In practice, this means three things to users:

1. The date is known: The date is on the schedule since November 2025, and is not a surprise, but a market-predictable information.
2. Positions controllable: Your own position size is the only variable you can control.
3. Liquidity determines responsiveness: Whether it can respond on this date depends on the feasibility of the transaction. The listing exchange and terms of MON should be confirmed before the date, rather than waiting until that day.

This pattern is not limited to Monad. We have recently observed the same mechanism in the end of the one-year lock-up period at Falcon Finance and the DoubleZero unlocking case. Reliable conclusions are always the same: focus on the volume of relative liquidity, the exact date, and reject any price forecast.

Why pledges turn "cliffs" into your scheduling problem

Pledge is the act of locking tokens in order to ensure network security and obtain rewards. However, in the context of unlocking dates, one point that is often ignored is that users are usually unable to sell immediately when pledged. On many networks, there is an Unbonding Period of several days between undelegating and the availability of funds.

If you pledge MON, this waiting period must be included in the calendar before November 24. What you need to clarify is: What is the actual unbonding duration for your provider or verifier? Is a minimum deadline agreed? Will early termination lose rewards? In addition, based on the original source, tokens in locked status cannot be pledged. Therefore, team and investor shares are not counted in the pledge amount before the cliff period, but this may change after the date.

Remaining unlocking schedule before 2029

November 24, 2026 is the first and largest node, but not the last. Based on the original source, the release of team tokens will continue over the next three years, with investor shares paid in an equal amount of 1/48 per month. The foundation expects that in the fourth quarter of 2029, the fourth anniversary of the launch of the main online, all initially locked tokens will be fully unlocked.

For completeness, list all sources of initial allocation (All from the same official channel):

• Ecosystem development: approximately 38.5%
• Team: approximately 27%
• Investors: Approximately 19.7%
• Public sales through the Coinbase platform (unit price $0.025): 7.5%
• Category Labs Treasury: approximately 3.95%
• Airdrop: About 3.3%

The number of tokens locked in when launched was 50.6 billion MON, accounting for 50.6% of the total.

Monitoring recommendations

Focus on schedules without daily monitoring. Just set a reminder two weeks before the date and set a second reminder that day. What can be observed then is whether the actual circulating supply changes in the weeks after the cliff period. This can be tracked using the arithmetic method described above (market value divided by price).

Numbers that should be recalculated by yourself when unlocking

Monad's case is a good exercise because the original source coexists with multiple contradictory data aggregation platforms. There are only four inspection steps that take a few minutes to complete:

1. Cross-verify the circulation supply: Divide the market value by the price to get the actual circulation used. If there is a significant deviation from the reported value, the field is unreliable.
2. Put the released amount into the ratio: The released amount divided by the amount through. Only this ratio can explain the order of magnitude; absolute token numbers are meaningless in themselves.
3. Check the share source: Does this number appear in the project white paper or is it modeled from lock-in terms? For modeling data, assumptions must be attached.
4. Record the date and time: The cliff occurred at a specific point in time, not throughout the day. Time zones are crucial for personal arrangements.

Unsettled matters regarding this date

The first thing undecided is the total amount on November 24, because an explanation of the investor lock-up clause has not yet been announced. The second undecided is how much of the team's shares have actually been vested and released, as this depends on the individual's entry date. The third undecided is whether the foundation will provide a more precise timetable by then; the current overview of token economics (released November 10, 2025) describes expectations rather than commitments.

In contrast, established facts include: dates, mechanisms for cliffs and subsequent installments, a team share of approximately 10.7% of the initial supply at the anniversary, and today's 11.83 billion in circulation supply. Based on this, positions can be evaluated in the background without the need for forecasts. In addition, MON's trading price has been lower than its highest price since its launch: CoinGecko's report shows a historical high of $0.0488 on November 26, 2025, and the current price is approximately $0.0263. Both are historical data and do not constitute an indication of future development.

Monad Unlock: Summary of Core Points

• Planning Time: Enter November 24, 2026 into the calendar and reverse the lock-up period from that date.
• Pledge considerations: If you pledge MON, the provider's unbonding cycle determines your ability to act on that date. Lock-up periods and reward mechanisms vary from platform to platform and need to be checked carefully.
• Be wary of data: Don't blindly trust the circulating supply in the data fields. It takes only ten seconds to divide the market value by the price, but it can avoid a four-fold error like MON.
• Tax compliance: Record the acquisition date before adjusting positions. In jurisdictions such as Germany, reallocation of assets due to a change in date may trigger a taxable event, with the key being the acquisition date and the holding period.