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FollowingSiegel: Real yields on inflation-protected Treasury bonds have climbed, and the relative advantage of stocks has narrowed.
Economist Jeremy Siegel pointed out that the current real yield on 30-year inflation-protected Treasury bonds (TIPS) is close to 3.35%, which has shrunk the yield advantage of stocks over bonds to about 1.65 percentage points.
Key Points
Siegel said that in 20 to 30 years, the 30-year inflation-protected Treasury note has never reached such a high level of yield. He believes that higher borrowing costs will hit companies with thin profit margins far more than large technology companies. He expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice this year, with a possible 0.5 percentage point hike in December.
Siegel's bond mathematical logic
Siegel, emeritus professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School and senior economist at asset management firm WisdomTree, said in a television interview that the yields on this type of security, known as inflation-protected Treasury bonds (TIPS), have not been so high in the past two or three decades. TIPS provides a fixed return above the inflation rate.
According to his calculations, when the stock market's P/E ratio is 20 times, the stock return is about inflation plus 5%. This means that the additional reward for taking equity risk is only about 1.65 percentage points. Although stocks still outperform bonds, he noted that the gap is narrowing.
普通国债收益率也在攀升。周四，10年期国债收益率触及5.33%，创下自2002年以来的最高水平，随后回落至约5.24%。受持续通胀、政府巨额借款以及强劲经济增长的影响，利率预期居高不下，30年期国债收益率也达到了2002年以来的最高点。
“七巨头”的利润率困境
据报道，西格尔估算，“科技七巨头”（Magnificent 7，由大型科技公司领衔）的利润率高达50%至70%，而其他非科技公司的利润率仅为7%至10%。因此，较高的借贷成本将侵蚀那些较薄利润中的更大份额。他认为，这阻碍了上半年资金向更广泛股票板块的轮动。FactSet数据显示，9月份标普500指数中约75%的股票下跌。
西格尔对美联储的预期
西格尔还表示，美联储今年需要再加息两次，而央行自身的预测仅指向一次加息。据报道，他建议主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）跳过定于10月27日至28日举行的会议（该会议结束于中期选举前六天），改为在12月加息0.5个百分点。
美联储领导人正释放耐心信号。副主席菲利普·杰斐逊（Philip Jefferson）周四表示，在9月中旬加息0.25个百分点并将目标利率区间上调至3.75%-4.00%后，同事们可能需要更多时间来评估下一步行动。交易员目前认为10月加息的概率约为25%，低于周初的约70%。
西格尔已跟踪股票溢价缩小的趋势数月之久。今年6月初，他指出实际收益率接近2%，股票优势为2.5至3个百分点。而在9月28日，他撰文指出，在短短三周内上升约40个基点后，10年期实际收益率已接近2.8%，使债券成为更具竞争力的投资选择。
