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Following
XRP The net outflow from the XRP exchange surged by more than 320 million, repeating a precursor to the August market.
CryptoQuant data shows that the outflow from XRP exchange transactions with a single size of more than 1 million has soared to more than 320 million. Analyst Xaif Crypto pointed out that what makes this data special is that the last time there was a surge of this magnitude was in August this year, and XRP prices have since increased by more than 42%.
Binance leads the wave of withdrawals, and multiple platforms are under pressure simultaneously.
According to Xaif Crypto analysis, Binance is the leader in this withdrawal action. Exchanges such as Coinbase, Upbit, Bybit and Bitget, which recently suffered a $387 million security breach, also experienced large outflows.
"The last time this surge occurred (August), XRP surged from $1.05 to $1.50." The trader pointed out.
On-chain data reveals signs of leverage clearing and easing selling pressure
Analyst Amr Taha tracks the trend in currency security. Data shows that Binance's XRP reserves increased from approximately 2.6 billion to 2.7 billion between September 13 and 27, but as of September 30, they have fallen back to 2.647 billion. This means that about 57 million XRPs (2.1%) were lost in just three days, more than half of the previous accumulation. Taha said that if this downward trend continues, the supply of tokens for spot trading will decrease, easing selling pressure.
Another CryptoQuant author, CryptoOnChain, focuses on leverage, pointing out that leveraged positions are reduced "faster than prices fall." The report said that the value of Binance XRP open interest contracts fell to US$521.5 million on September 29, down 15.3% from a six-month high of US$616.1 million a week ago.
Meanwhile, from September 24 to 29, the average daily amount of long liquidations (i.e., high-priced bets forced to close due to falling prices) was US$3.72 million, approximately 2.6 times the six-month average. The funding rate also halved from 0.010 to 0.005, although the leverage ratio remained above the six-month average of 0.169. One explanation proposed by CryptoOnChain is that traders opted to reduce leverage long positions before the end of the quarter rather than directly selling spot positions.
"Historically, this has often been accompanied by range swings, as market positions are resetting and the supply of tokens on exchanges increases slightly." The analyst explained.
Price Trend and Historical October Performance
As of the time of writing, the trading price of Ripple Token (XRP) is close to US$1.50, with an increase of about 1% in 24 hours, and there is little fluctuation on the weekly basis. XRP, the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation, has risen 16% in the past 14 days, but has remained weak over the past year, falling more than 47%.
Looking back on September, XRP closed with a third consecutive month of gains, with a value increase of approximately 8%. During this period, net inflows into spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) exceeded US$121 million, cumulative net inflows were close to US$1.8 billion, and there has never been a single weekly net outflow since early July.
However, after entering October, historical data shows that the performance of the token tends to be more difficult. Of the past 13 October months, only five have recorded positive returns. The most recent one was in 2023, when the increase was 16.5%, but then it fell by 16.7% in 2024. After last year's "October 10" crash, there was also a decline of nearly 12%.
