Exchange Ranking
Top Exchanges
24h Volume Ranking
Popularity Ranking
Exchange BTC Balance
Proof of Reserves
Decentralized Exchanges
Funding Rate
Funding Heatmap
Liquidation Data
Max Pain
Long/Short Ratio
Whale L/S Ratio
Binance/Okex/Huobi L/S
Bitfinex Margin L/S
ETF Tracker
Solana ETF
XRP ETF
Hong Kong ETF
Bitcoin Treasuries
Crypto Reversal
Ethereum Reserves
HyperLiquid Wallet Analysis
Hyperliquid Whale Watch
Large Transactions
On-chain Movement
Bitcoin ROI
Stablecoin Market Cap
Options Analysis
News
Articles
Economic Calendar
Features
Wallet
Contract Calculator
Security
Collections
Watchlist
Following
BTC Key Facts
On October 7, Bitcoin was blocked at the US$85,000 mark. Buying failed to convert the level into support. Large altcoins fell 3% to 5% that day. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.307%, a 24-year high; the 30-year yield climbed to 5.688%, as the market closely watched the upcoming 10-year Treasury auction and the release of minutes of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders expect a 78% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting. As the U.S. midterm elections approach less than 30 days ago, market sentiment has become cautious.
Bitcoin (BTC)'s sprint towards a new high in 2026 is slowing down, making it difficult for bulls to convert resistance from $85,000 into support. Large altcoins also fell 3% to 5% on October 7. After a strong performance in January, the broader crypto market seems to need some respite and adjustment.
Why did the crypto market pull back during the "Uptober" period?
Bond yields are a clear factor inhibiting the momentum of the crypto market. On October 7, the 10-year Treasury yield hit a 24-year high of 5.307%, and the 30-year yield rose to 5.688%. That heightened investor concerns about Wednesday's auction of 10-year bonds and the release of minutes of the September FOMC meeting. According to CME FedWatch tool, investors are currently pricing the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting as high as 78%.
除了对债券抛售的恐慌外，处于24年高位的10年期和30年期收益率也让部分基金经理质疑持有高波动性、无收益资产逻辑的合理性。
尽管9月表现优异，市场进入 consolidation（整合/盘整）阶段或许是必要的，但前景中仍有许多看涨催化剂。尽管周中出现了抛售，但被加密专家亲切称为“Uptober”（十月上涨行情）的10月，往往能提振交易者的看涨预期。历史数据显示，在过去13年中，比特币在10月的平均涨幅为20%。
BTC/USD 10月月收益率（%）：来源：Coinglass
将这一历史表现与近期美国证券交易委员会（SEC）和商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）出台的亲加密监管政策相结合，再加上本周SEC批准的3倍杠杆比特币和以太坊交易所交易产品，以及市场长期等待的、用于支撑更长周期反弹的新资金流入，市场可能正处于上升通道中。
美联储的货币政策在10月也可能转向有利于加密市场的方向。历史上看，美联储通常避免在选举前不久调整利率，而美国中期选举不到30天后即将举行。此外，加上9月疲软的非农就业数据（仅增加28,000个就业岗位）——除非消费者价格指数（CPI）大幅高于预期——否则美联储加息的可能性似乎很低。
10月加密市场前景展望
In short, the October market outlook may feature the following characteristics:
- Bitcoin, large altcoins and DeFi tokens continue to strengthen: The SEC/CFTC regulatory rulemaking and newly approved ETF/ETP product announcements have boosted investor sentiment.
- Fed keeps interest rates unchanged: This will be in line with market expectations and eliminate a risk event that would normally restrict the flow of crypto-capital and investors 'use of perpetual contracts. The liquidity map shows that $90,000 is the most immediate upside target, followed by broad room to $100,000. Traders hope to turn this narrative into reality.
- Risk avoidance before the end of the year: Market concerns about a possible December interest rate hike after the U.S. mid-term elections in November and the release of U.S. stock market earnings results in the third quarter may lead to early risk-averse actions from the end of October to the beginning of November. If bond yields cool due to improved geopolitics or U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's efforts to support the long end of the curve, the strength of the crypto market may be maintained.
