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BTC Bitcoin fluctuated around US$84,000 and failed to break through the annual opening price.
The recent trading price of Bitcoin (BTC) has hovered around US$84,000, and once again failed to effectively break through the annual opening key level of US$87,700. According to Bitfinex analysis, future market trends will depend more on the recovery of spot demand than on the increase in futures leverage.
Bitcoin hit a high of $87,200 on October 2, but then fell back below key levels. The obstruction marks the third failed attempt to break through in the past ten days. The core question currently concerned about the market is: Will the trend reverse?
Declining leverage and slowing demand
According to Bitfinex, previous price gains were mainly driven by futures trading. Before the September non-farm payrolls data, the value of open interest increased by $2.1 billion; after the data was released, the value of open interest fell by another $1.5 billion as traders closed their positions.
Currently, total open interest in futures is approximately 625,000 BTC, the lowest level since January 1, indicating that market leverage is decreasing. At the same time, spot demand has also weakened. From September 28 to October 2, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were $241.1 million, down about 90% from the $2.39 billion recorded in the previous week. In addition, nine consecutive days of net inflows also ended with a net outflow of $148.7 million on September 30.
ETF fund flows and key prices
In terms of specific fund performance, BlackRock's IBIT recorded an inflow of $450.2 million, while Fidelity's FBTC recorded an outflow of $168 million. Bitfinex points out that this is partly because the average cost base for ETF holders is approximately $84,320.
Data shows that when Bitcoin prices fluctuate around the above cost base (±2%), the average daily inflow of ETFs is approximately US$65 million; while when Bitcoin prices are more than 10% above the benchmark, the average daily inflow reaches US$136 million. Bitfinex believes that US$86,000 is an important barrier, and if the price falls below US$82,600, ETF holders may fall back into losses.
In addition to ETF fund flows, approximately 867,000 BTC are gathered in the US$84,000 to US$84,500 range, which is the largest cost-intensive area. About 75% of Bitcoin supply is currently profitable. Although strong non-farm payrolls data triggered market expectations for a pause in interest rate hikes in October, inflation, consumer spending and government bond yields remained high.
Bitfinex expects Bitcoin to consolidate between US$84,000 and its annual opening price. If ETF inflows strengthen significantly, prices are expected to move towards $90,000. However, if prices continue to fall below $81,300, market focus may shift to $77,000 and the True Market Mean near $77,200.
