Cardano price exceeds $0.196, whales hoard 110 million ADA

Cardano (ADA) hovers above US$0.196, and whales have increased their holdings by 110 million tokens

Cardano (ADA) remained above US$0.196 on Monday, after recording strong double-digit gains in the previous two weeks, showing that the cryptocurrency is regaining momentum amid a continued recovery. The continued increase in holdings by large investors and the strengthening of technical indicators have supported the upward trend of assets, but a series of key resistance levels still need to be faced in the short term, which may limit the room for further gains.

Whale holdings and derivatives data send new signals

Sanitation's supply distribution data shows that major ADA holders have increased their purchases during the latest recovery stage. Wallets holding 1 million to 100 million ADA coins have added a cumulative 110 million tokens since Friday, indicating that top holders are using recent price consolidations to increase exposure rather than reduce their holdings. This active increase in holdings could reduce the supply of liquid ADA in the market and enhance long-term prospects for assets. However, analysts caution that continued whale buying does not always directly drive prices higher, especially when Cardano remains below important resistance levels.

Developments in the Cardano derivatives market have also added to cautious optimism. CoinGlass data showed that ADA's weighted funding rate on open interest turned positive on Saturday and was last reported at 0.0038% on Monday. This means that long positions are paying a premium to short positions, a structure that is often associated with increased confidence in the market that prices will continue to rise. Despite the positive premium, funding rates remain at moderate levels, indicating that leveraged long bets have not been excessive. The long-short ratio also rose slightly to 0.99, close to the neutral range, reflecting a decrease in short positions and an improvement in the long-short balance.

Sanitation's latest data shows that major holders have increased their holdings of 110 million ADAs since Friday, reflecting continued market confidence during the Cardano price recovery phase. CoinGlass data also showed that optimism in the derivatives market is heating, with funding rates turning positive, but leveraged long positions remain relatively restrained. In addition, CryptoQuant's market overview highlighted significant whale activity in the Cardano futures sector, but broader indicator readings remained neutral, showing a moderate improvement in sentiment among professional traders but overall caution.

Technical side: Cardano targets breakthrough position

Technically, the ADA remains above the 50-day index moving average (currently at $0.180) and is trading near the 100-day EMA ($0.196). The asset recently regained its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of approximately $0.195 and broke through the downtrend line near $0.176, further enhancing the credibility of its continued recovery. Despite the improvement, Cardano is still below the 100th and 200th EMAs (the latter is at $0.254) and faces significant resistance clusters between $0.213 and $0.236. Market observers point out that breaking through these levels could open up space for the next major target of $0.2991.

The momentum indicator also strengthened. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 64, well above the neutral 50 level, but below the overbought threshold of 70, indicating continued buying interest but not excessive bubbles. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence Indicator (MACD) remains positive, reinforcing recent bullish momentum. The key to Cardano's continued recovery lies in whether it can remain above $0.195 and decisively break through the resistance of $0.196. If momentum continues, the next major upside targets include the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, which are at US$0.213 and US$0.231 respectively.

Support and resistance levels to be concerned about

Direct support for Cardano is near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ($0.195). If it breaks below this level, the ADA may fall back to the 50th EMA (US$0.180), with further downside focusing on US$0.173 support and the bottom of the US$0.150 level. Although whale driven overholdings and improved derivatives market sentiment have provided support for Cardano's recent gains, the token must overcome stubborn resistance areas to confirm a bullish reversal and maintain the rebound momentum.