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BTC Strategy shares soared, driven by Bitcoin gains and ETF inflows.
Strategy shares rose sharply in pre-market trading to US$115.65, the highest point since June 22, up 40% from the lowest level this year. The YieldMax MSTR options yield strategy ETF (MSTY) also rose, rising to $13.95, compared with a previous year-long low of $11.5.
Bitcoin rebound and market sentiment boost Strategy's share price
Strategy's strong performance is closely related to Bitcoin's recent return to momentum. In the past few weeks, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has entered the greedy range for the first time in months, rising back from an extremely feared 25 points to 61 points. Historical experience shows that periods of high market greed have often favored the trend of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin achieved a significant technical breakthrough after months of sideways consolidation, climbing to US$72,396, its highest price since June 1. Bitcoin has gained more than 25% since this year's low and is currently trying to break the key 200-day exponential moving average.
In this round of rebound, institutional demand for Bitcoin has increased significantly. The single-day net inflow of funds from the spot Bitcoin ETF exceeded US$500 million, and the total monthly net inflow exceeded US$1.4 billion. These investment products currently manage a total of US$84 billion in assets, reflecting strong demand despite previous market uncertainties.
At the same time, Bitcoin remains resilient despite the weakening of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.57 points, below its June peak of 101.80 and not far from its lowest point since May 14. Historically, a weakening of the US dollar is often accompanied by a strengthening of the Bitcoin market.
Bitcoin's recovery is particularly important to Strategy, as it holds 840,447 bitcoins worth more than US$60.5 billion and is the world's largest holder of corporate Bitcoin.
As technical analysis becomes increasingly important to traders and institutions, major changes are also taking place in the traditional financial sector. Wall Street is moving towards Web3, and investors can now trust shares of U.S. company stocks, gold and silver directly into digital wallets through relevant platforms. By tokenizing real-world assets and locking in optimal prices within seconds, these platforms eliminate the need for intermediaries.
Potential risks cast a shadow over future trends
Despite the positive momentum, analysts also pointed to several risks facing Strategy Company stocks. The company's share price chart shows a bearish flag pattern, in which the stock price rises and then enters a sideways consolidation. If this pattern is confirmed, it may signal further declines in the future.
In addition, Strategy shares remain below the important resistance level of $115, which was tested as a support level in June. To confirm a continued bullish trend, stock prices need to clearly break through this resistance level and the 200-day index moving average.
Continuous dilution also poses a challenge. Strategy recently increased its U.S. dollar reserves by $150 million to $4.8 billion by issuing additional MSTR shares. The number of shares outstanding has increased significantly from 93 million shares in 2022 to 351 million shares today.
The purpose of the additional stock issue is to fund the repurchase of STRC shares and strengthen Strategy's cash position in order to pay dividends to STRC shareholders. However, more rounds of financing may still be needed in the future, which increases the risk of continued dilution of existing shareholders.
In addition, Bitcoin is still facing renewed downward pressure, which will have a negative impact on the value of cryptocurrency assets held by Strategy Companies.
