Solana prices above key EMA, trading volumes fall, rally is suspended

Key analysis of Solana (SOL) price: Moving average support is solid and the market enters a consolidation phase

Solana (SOL) prices remain above the key daily exponential moving average (EMA) after experiencing a significant rise in August. Despite the overall strong trend, the recent decline in momentum indicators and a significant decline in open interest volume and trading volume suggest that the market may be entering a potential consolidation phase.

Technical Analysis: SOL stands above the main moving average

According to the latest data, Solana is trading at US$102.78, down 0.57% in the past 24 hours. Data shows that SOL is still operating above its 20th, 50th, 100th and 200th EMA, indicating continued strong characteristics in the broader trend.

The specific values of the current EMA for each cycle in Solana are as follows:

• 20th EMA: $99.21
• 50th EMA: $90.52
• 100th EMA: $86.13
• 200th EMA: $91.37

Analysts believe that the 20th EMA at $99.21 is a critical support level. If Solana sees a deeper pullback, traders will pay close attention to the $92.10 level, while the broader support area is identified around $74.57, where the previous consolidation area was located.

Solana's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 60.74, below its previous average of 67.73, indicating that August's strong upward momentum has weakened. However, the RSI remains above levels that normally signal bearish movements, suggesting that market participants remain optimistic.

Positions and derivatives market dynamics

Coinglass's recent open interest data showed a surge from US$4.4 - 4.5 billion in early August to a high of US$7.5 billion, and then fell back to US$6.6 billion. This trend is consistent with price movements in late August and reflects the decline in leveraged funds as Solana enters a consolidation period.

Open interest levels provide insight into trader activity in the derivatives market, although available data cannot clearly distinguish between net long positions and net short positions. As a result, analysts pointed out that it is difficult to establish a clear bullish or bearish trend based on these data alone.

The rebound in August was accompanied by a large-scale liquidation event. There was a sharp spike around August 20, when short positions worth about $100 million were forcibly closed. This incident coincided with SOL breaking through the US$70-plus range, indicating that forced short clearing helped boost prices. However, as volatility increased, liquidations affected both long and short positions, indicating active trading in the derivatives market during the period.

Mini Glossary: Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)It is a type of moving average that gives higher weight to recent prices, making it highly sensitive to new information, so it is often used to analyze market trends in the short and medium term.

Trading Activity and Institutional Interest

Solana's trading volume surged during the August rebound, with trading volumes ranging from $12 billion to $15 billion on several days. The highest single-day trading volume was close to US$17 billion, much higher than previous levels. Since then, trading volumes have declined and SOL prices have stabilized in the US$100 - 105 range. Analysts are watching this volume change closely to assess whether new demand will emerge if SOL targets higher prices.

If both prices and trading volumes rise, it will indicate strong new demand. Conversely, if prices move higher and trading volumes weaken, analysts may question the sustainability of the rally.

In addition to price movements, the Solana Foundation announced that it will hold a closed invitation-based forum called "Solana & Suits" in London on October 5. The event will focus on the evolution of capital markets and will invite representatives from leading institutions such as Standard Chartered Bank, State Street, Societe Generale, Baillie Gifford and Allfunds to deliver speeches. The event aims to promote discussions among large financial services companies to jointly build the future of on-chain financial infrastructure.

Through interactions with major banks and asset management companies, Solana aims to place itself at the center of discussions about the on-chain financial system. According to the Solana Foundation's announcement, the focus is on how changes will be implemented rather than whether they will be implemented.

Although the event was not directly linked to recent fluctuations in Solana prices, it highlighted the project's intention to attract institutional attention and deepen its links to global finance.

Key points to pay attention to

Traders are paying close attention to several key technical points in Solana in the short term. The intraday high of $105.20 is seen as the main resistance level, while $110 is another key area where previous rallies have encountered selling pressure. If breakthroughs in these levels can be confirmed with the increase in trading volume, it may signal the arrival of a new round of bullish momentum.

On the downside, the 20th EMA at $99.21 is the primary defensive support level. A break below this level could weaken short-term momentum, while a break below $92.10 would open the door to a deeper technical correction, when the broader $74.57 support area would return to focus.