Why Ethereum (ETH) is still 59% below its all-time high despite rising ETF demand

stablecoin trading volume drives Standard Chartered Bank's valuation framework

Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick maintains a year-end target price of US$250 for Solana (SOL), which means the token needs to rise 107% in less than 90 days. Since the forecast was first released in February this year, the cryptocurrency is currently trading at approximately US$121, with a relatively stable trend.

Net inflows to the Solana ETF surged 40% in September, climbing to US$271 million from US$194 million in August. On September 26, online validators implemented a policy change that doubled the deflation rate, thereby slowing the speed at which new tokens can be issued. In addition, Solana's decentralized application revenue exceeded $100 million for two consecutive weeks, reaching a high level not seen since August 2025.

As of October 5, 2026, Solana (SOL) continues to trade in the US$121 range, a huge gap between it and the ambitious US$250 target set at the beginning of the year. When analyst Jeff Kendrick released his forecast in February, the token's price hovered at similar levels, and months later, it failed to make substantial progress towards that goal.

A significant increase is needed to achieve the $250 target by the end of the year

To reach the $250 level by the end of the year, Solana needs to achieve a staggering 107% price increase in less than three months. Such a rally would increase Solana's total market value from about $71 billion currently to about $147 billion.

The bank previously lowered its 2026 outlook in February, lowering its target price from $310 to $250. However, Kendrick also raised his long-term forecast and proposed a bold $2000 target for 2030.

Investment product flow and network indicators show positive trends

Solana-focused exchange-traded open-end index funds (ETFs) saw net inflows increase 40% in September to cumulative US$271 million, compared with US$194 million the previous month. SOL's current trading volume is US$2.3 billion, accounting for approximately 3.2% of its total outstanding market value.

The number of unique addresses interacting with the Solana blockchain per day shows a continued growth trend. According to Sand's data analysis, the 30-day and 50-day moving averages of indicators in the chain form a bullish cross.

Fee revenue for decentralized applications in the Solana ecosystem, including platforms such as Pump.fun, exceeded the $100 million mark for the second consecutive week. This income level has not persisted since August 2025.

Technical Analysis and Market Views

From a technical perspective, SOL faces significant resistance near the US$120 price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently records at 64. If the price successfully breaks the $125 barrier, market participants are watching to see if it is possible to continue moving towards $150. Conversely, if buying momentum is not enough to overcome current resistance, a pullback to the $110 -115 support area is another scenario traders are preparing for.

Kendrick builds price forecasts by analyzing the relationship between Solana network valuations and the economic throughput occurring on the blockchain. A key factor in his analysis involves the growing preference for SOL and stablecoin trading pairs on decentralized exchanges.

Analysts expect that AI-driven automated systems will increasingly leverage Solana's infrastructure for micropayments, taking advantage of the network's abnormally low transaction costs. However, Kendrick warned that until payment activity reaches a large enough scale to support higher valuations, Solana may perform weaker than Ethereum in 2026 and 2027.

Solana has gained 18% in the past 30 days. Despite the recent upward trend, the token is still well below the all-time high of $293 set in January 2025 and 59% below its peak.

The current total circulation supply of SOL tokens is 588 million. Unlike cryptocurrencies with rigid supply caps, Solana continues to mince new coins as a pledge reward, which creates continued selling pressure, and any sustainable price increase requires new purchasing demand to offset this pressure. The protocol modification implemented by Internet Verifier on September 26 will double the de-inflation rate. Although this adjustment reduces the speed at which new tokens are issued, it does not create additional market demand by itself.

社交媒体上以@0xSweep闻名的市场分析师Sweep指出了Solana近期行为中的一种重复价格模式。根据他的评估，该代币经历扩张阶段后进入积累期，而SOL目前正处于积累区域。Sweep建议，在下一轮上涨启动之前，可能会出现跌破110美元的暂时性下跌。